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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Jobless claims increased while layoffs stayed at a historical low; EU reached a deal for €50B to support Ukraine (More in Macro & TradFi)
- Celsius exits bankruptcy with new Bitcoin entity; Bybit seeks Hong Kong expansion (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- Whale sells AAVE at a loss; Single wallet farmed 1.85M $JUP (More in On-Chain)
- DVOL for BTC and ETH decreases, BTC 7-day and 30-day ATM see slight divergence (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC shows resilience at $42K support; ETH forms an ascending wedge pattern (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits increased to 224,000 for the week ending January 27, marking the highest level in 11 weeks. The weekly unemployment claims, viewed as a gauge for U.S. layoffs, rose by 9,000 from the previous week. Despite the uptick in jobless claims, layoffs remain at historically low levels. Jobless benefits suggest that there is a cool-off of the labor market - a slowdown in the rate of job creation and employment growth, often after a period of significant expansion. The Labor Department's report indicates a potential shift in the job market, but it's important to consider broader economic factors and trends. The government's January jobs report is awaited for a more comprehensive view of the employment landscape.
Elsewhere, the European Union (EU) has reached a deal on a €50 billion financial support package for Ukraine after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán lifted his veto. The agreement followed pressure on Orbán, the only EU leader with friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The deal is seen to be crucial for Ukraine's financial stability as it combats Russia's invasion. Orbán had demanded an annual veto over continued payments to Kyiv, a demand rejected by other EU leaders. The compromise includes a control mechanism, an annual debate on aid implementation, and a review possibility in two years if all member states agree.
Lastly, U.S. stocks showed positive momentum on Thursday as investors awaited earnings reports from tech giants. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 both surged 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1%. Meta shares soared 13% in after-hours trading, reaching a record high, following a robust quarterly earnings report that surpassed analyst estimates and included the announcement of a quarterly dividend. Merck gained 4.7% after beating earnings expectations, and Microsoft rebounded with a 1.6% increase. On the downside, C.H. Robinson tumbled 12.6% after missing earnings estimates, and insurers Aflac and MetLife fell 9.6% and 5.7%, respectively, as they both missed quarterly earnings estimates. In the tech sector, Amazon rose 2.6%, and AI semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, ASML Holding, and Advanced Micro Devices, posted gains. However, Qualcomm slid 5% after forecasting a stabilization but not growth in the smartphone market for 2024.
CeFi & DeFi
- Celsius Emerges from Chapter 11 and Commences Distributions of Over $3 Billion of Cryptocurrency to Creditors
- Bybit seeks VATP license in Hong Kong for crypto expansion
- Polygon Labs cuts 19% of staff in an effort toward ‘enhanced performance’
- FTX’s Missing $400 Million was Stolen in SIM-Swapping Hack, DOJ Says
- Three Arrows' OPNX exchange confirms its imminent shutdown
Celsius Network successfully emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, marking the end of an 18-month restructuring process with the initiation of over $3 billion in cryptocurrency and fiat distributions to creditors, and the establishment of a new Bitcoin mining entity owned by those creditors, Ionic Digital, Inc. This achievement follows Celsius’ comprehensive plan of reorganization, which received overwhelming support from its account holders and was confirmed by the Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York. The reorganization included significant legal and regulatory cooperation, the resolution of complex issues, and the conversion of assets to enhance creditor recoveries. Ionic Digital, expected to be publicly traded pending approvals, represents a strategic pivot to maximize creditor value through Bitcoin mining operations managed by Hut 8 Corp. This transition both underscores Celsius' commitment to maximizing creditor recovery and also highlights successful navigation through legal, regulatory, and operational challenges, setting a precedent for cryptocurrency lenders facing bankruptcy. The company will now focus on an orderly wind-down of its operations, discontinuing its mobile and web applications, as it moves forward with its restructuring process.
Elsewhere, Bybit has officially applied for a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license in Hong Kong, signaling its ambitions for expansion in the region. This application, submitted on January 31 through Spark Fintech Limited, places Bybit among several other exchanges seeking approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to operate within a framework that supports both institutional and retail crypto market participation. Hong Kong, distinguishing itself as a crypto-friendly hub, contrasts with mainland China's more restrictive stance on digital assets. This move by Bybit and others shows the city-state's growing appeal as a destination for crypto businesses, further highlighted by the SFC's progressive regulations and the potential for introducing crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including futures-based and possibly spot ETFs in the future.
An on-chain analysis of AAVE token movement has highlighted significant activity by a whale, characterized by substantial deposits to Binance. The whale transferred approximately 264K AAVE, valued at $22.56 million, to Binance at an average price of around $85.48 over two days. Previously, between November 6 and 9, the same entity withdrew 364K AAVE, worth $35.97 million, from Binance. With 100K AAVE, approximately $8.45 million, still held by the whale, the transactions imply a potential loss nearing $5 million, given that the whale acquired the AAVE at higher prices. This kind of large-scale movement, especially at a loss, may influence market sentiment and liquidity and thus is crucial for investors to monitor. Investors should take into account the potential market impact of such significant holdings and transactions by large entities, as they can lead to increased volatility and price movements. It's also a reminder of the inherent risks associated with holding and trading large volumes of cryptocurrency assets, especially in a market known for its rapid price fluctuations.
The massive accumulation of Jupiter ($JUP) tokens by a wallet indicates the adept navigation of airdrop farming strategies. The wallet in question received a significant airdrop amount through multiple wallets and then sold a large portion of JUP at a peak price, making a profit of $1.17M. This highlights that, despite varying sentiments around the crypto market, airdrop farming can still be a lucrative avenue for those who actively participate and time their sales well. It's a reminder of the ongoing opportunities within the DeFi space and the importance of staying informed about various token projects and their incentive mechanisms. Investors interested in airdrop farming should research extensively and understand the associated risks.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH decreased to 45.17% and 45.85%, respectively.
- The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH rose to 1.33% and 2.91% respectively.
- The futures market witnessed $104.83M liquidations, with longs representing 50.1%.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
Looking at At-the-Money Implied Volatility (IV) of BTC, IV has remained flat, and a slight divergence was observed between the 7-day ATM and the 30-day ATM. This suggests market sentiments of increasing expectations for lower volatility over the near to medium-term future as the 7-day ATM is at 38.61% and the 30-day ATM is at 41.94%. Such a disparity between the two time frames suggests that investors are pricing in a calmer market environment in the immediate future, but anticipate slightly higher uncertainty or potential price movement in the longer term, possibly due to the lack of upcoming BTC price catalysts over the next week.
BTC market's term structure has preserved its contango configuration, characterized by a notable dip in the short-term IV for contracts expiring within the next two days. This trend extends across the curve, with implied volatility decreasing for tenors up to 147 days. This could be driven by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about a March Interest rate cut being an unlikely case.
The BTC’s 25-delta call-put skews continue to be positive for both the 7-day and 30-day maturities, indicating that the market sentiment amongst option investors remains bullish. Skews have stabilized over the past few days, indicating that investors anticipate continued upward movement in BTC's price, reflecting optimism in the BTC’s short to medium-term outlook.
Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted key BTC trades of 250x 23-Feb-24 48k Calls sold and the purchase of 100x 29-Mar-24 60k/65k/70k Call Butterfly Spreads. On the ETH front, significant moves included the sale of 6250x 29-Mar-24 2.3k/2k Put Spread and a transaction involving 2000x 26-April-24 2.6k Call sold.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Moving on to technical analysis for BTC, the price is exhibiting signs of re-entry into the previously identified ascending channel, which suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend. The $42K support level is vital, as a confirmed breach could lead to a test of the next support zone. Conversely, should the price sustain within the channel and pursue higher levels, the immediate resistance lies at approximately $46K, an upside of 3.55% from current price levels. The RSI is currently positioned at 56.71, exhibiting a neutral momentum with a slight upward inclination. This subtle uptrend in the RSI could indicate increasing buying pressure as the price approaches the channel's lower boundary. It’s essential to monitor the price action closely to ascertain whether the re-entry into the channel will be sustained, potentially setting the stage for further upward movement.
On the other hand, ETH appears to be forming an ascending wedge. Typically, such a formation can indicate a consolidation phase, where the price makes higher lows and somewhat higher highs, converging towards a point that may precede to a volatility increase. In the context of ETH, the price is currently navigating in the midpoint of this wedge. Moreover, there is a pronounced support level at $2.2K, presenting a downside of 4.11%. Conversely, a clear breakout above the wedge could see the price target the next substantial resistance level at $2.45K, which is approximately 5.02% above current price levels. The RSI is positioned at 52.80, suggesting a neutral market sentiment with no immediate signs of overbought or oversold conditions. The RSI's flat trend also reflects the consolidation noted in the price action. Investors and analysts alike should pay close attention to the price behavior near the wedge's boundaries, as these are likely to serve as pivotal zones for ETH's short-term price trajectory.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳