S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- U.S. job growth nearly doubled projections; S&P500 reaches new record high (More in Macro & TradFi)
- Trump criticizes CBDCs and AI threats; Genesis seeks asset sale to maximize creditor returns (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- CryptoQuant reveals ETF trading surge; Kenetic Capital exhibits precise market timing (More in On-Chain)
- BTC’s 25-delta call-put skews negative for both the 7-day and 30-day maturities, BTC 7-day and 30-day ATM in a declining trend (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC shows bearish trends failing to re-enter ascending channel; ETH consolidates within the wedge (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
In January, the U.S. labor market unexpectedly added 353,000 jobs, nearly doubling the forecasted 180,000, signaling economic resilience. This growth has lessened the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March, as previously speculated by investors, leading to a shift in market expectations reflected in a rise in the two-year Treasury yield. Such robust job expansion, along with Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's hints against an imminent March rate cut and anticipation of gradual rate reductions throughout the year, suggests a cautious Fed approach amid inflation concerns. Powell also mentioned that the Federal Open Market Committee members anticipate around three quarter-point cuts throughout the year. This outlook reflects the Fed's response to evolving economic conditions, particularly labor market strength and inflation trends. Powell's comments suggest that the central bank is prepared to adjust the pace of rate cuts based on inflation persistence and economic performance. The interview also highlighted that the strong labor market has not resulted in the anticipated economic slowdown and that inflation is expected to continue its decline, setting the stage for potential rate adjustments mid-year.
Elsewhere, Donald Trump has hinted at a more aggressive trade stance against China, suggesting that if re-elected, he might impose tariffs on Chinese goods exceeding 60%. This marks a shift to an even more hawkish position than during his first term when his administration set tariffs that led to a retaliatory trade response from China. Trump dismisses concerns about a potential trade war, emphasizing his desire for a fair relationship with China. His remarks come amid a broader debate on the economic relationship between the U.S. and China, with some lawmakers supporting a move to increase tariffs and restrict Chinese investments as a means to curb economic ties. These comments have prompted market players to consider the potential implications for trade and currency markets if Trump were to win the 2024 election.
On Friday, the S&P 500 reached a record high, closing up by 1.07% at 4.958.61, thanks to positive earnings and strong job growth data. The Nasdaq also increased by 1.74% to $15,628.95, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 0.35% to $38,654.42. Significant contributors to the S&P 500's performance included Meta Platforms, with a 20.3% surge after announcing its first dividend, and Amazon, which rose by 7.9% following a revenue beat. Additionally, companies like Cigna, which climbed 5.4% after raising its annual profit forecast, and Chevron Corp, up by 2.9% after surpassing analyst estimates, supported the market's upward trend. On the downside, Microchip Technology fell by 1.6% due to a disappointing sales forecast, and Skechers USA dropped 10.3% after providing a downbeat forecast. Investors will be monitoring the U.S. Non-manufacturing PMI data tonight at 23:00 SGT.
CeFi & DeFi
- Trump calls CDBCs “very dangerous”
- Bankrupt crypto lender Genesis seeks approval to sell $1.6B of trust assets
- OPNX Founder Su Zhu Says Shutdown Comes Because FTX Estate Claims Reached 'Recovery'
- Bitcoin ETF Provider Valkyrie Adds BitGo as Second Custodian in Risk Mitigation Move
- BlackRock and ProShares' Bitcoin ETFs Surpassed GBTC's Daily Volumes
Donald Trump articulated grave concerns regarding central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the advancement of artificial intelligence on Fox’s Sunday Morning Futures. He emphasized the potential for CBDCs to facilitate increased governmental surveillance and control, and described AI as the preeminent threat of this era due to its capacity for creating indistinguishable false realities. Trump's critique extends his long-standing narrative on preserving individual liberties against governmental overreach, specifically highlighting the risks CBDCs could pose to personal privacy and autonomy. Furthermore, his unsettling encounter with a deep-fake video highlights the pressing need for regulatory action to address security, privacy, and ethical concerns linked to technological advancements. As the 2024 presidential election looms, Trump's outspoken views are poised to shape public debate and policy discourse around the balance between innovation and regulation, and the safeguarding of personal freedoms in the advancing digital landscape.
Elsewhere, the bankrupt cryptocurrency lending company Genesis Global Capital has filed a request with the United States Bankruptcy Court for authorization to sell its holdings in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), and Grayscale Ethereum Classic Trust (ETCG), which are valued at around $1.6 billion in total. In a recent court document, Genesis highlighted the critical need to get permission to sell the trust assets promptly to avoid any possible price changes in the underlying assets. Genesis stated that the aim is to maximize the funds available for distribution to creditors. Genesis' proactive measure aims to safeguard the value of its assets and ensure the maximum possible distribution to its creditors amidst the ongoing financial restructuring.
The latest market data from CryptoQuant shows a compelling trend in which the trading volumes of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are steadily challenging those of Centralized Exchanges (CEXs). This shift heralds a significant realignment within the cryptocurrency trading landscape. If ETF trading volumes eclipse those of CEXs, the anticipated consequence is a heightened impact on Bitcoin’s valuation, driven by the investment strategies of large-scale institutional players. This emerging pattern reflects the deepening entrenchment of digital assets in the traditional financial sector and signals potential changes in liquidity distribution and the mechanisms of price determination.
Kenetic Capital recently transferred an additional 1 million RNDR tokens, valued at approximately $4.86 million, according to Spotonchain. Since December 24, 2023, the venture capital firm has moved a total of 2.5 million RNDR to the exchange, worth roughly $12.06 million at an average price of $4.83, predominantly before a decline in the token's price. Kenetic Capital retains a holding of 4.1 million RNDR, currently valued at $18.7 million. Their estimated total profit from these transactions stands at $4.45 million, marking a 24.7% return on investment. Kenetic Capital's recent transfer of RNDR tokens to Binance, likely for selling purposes, along with their consistent pre-price drop sales, highlights their sharp market timing capabilities.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH decreased to 41.98% and 43.20%, respectively.
- The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH diminished to -1.13% and -1.50% respectively.
- The futures market witnessed $85.95M liquidations, with longs representing 80.9%.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
Looking at the At-the-Money Implied Volatility (IV) of BTC, IV is in a declining trend, the 7-day ATM and 30-day ATM are observed to be relatively close to each other at 37.88% and 39.01% respectively. This suggests market sentiments of expectations for lower volatility over the near future. The proximity of the 7-day ATM and 30-day ATM suggests that investors are muted by Bitcoin’s price volatility.
BTC market's term structure has preserved its contango configuration, characterized by a slight increase in the short-term IV for contracts expiring within the next two days. This could be driven by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that the central bank will proceed carefully with interest rate cuts this year and likely will move at a considerably slower pace than the market expects.
The BTC’s 25-delta call-put skews dipped to the negative for both the 7-day and 30-day maturities at -1.80% and -1.24% respectively, indicating that the market sentiment amongst option investors may be bearish. Skews have declined over the past few days, indicating that investors anticipate continued downward movement in BTC's price, reflecting pessimism in the BTC’s short to medium-term outlook.
Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted that Blackrock and Proshares ETF crossed greyscales trading volume on Friday but volumes fell below $1bn. Key BTC trades include 500x 29-Mar-24 50k Calls bought and 200x 29-Mar-24 60k Calls bought. On the ETH front, significant moves included the purchase of a 4500x 9-Feb-24 2.4k Call and a transaction involving 1000x 9-Feb-24 2.3k Put.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Moving on to BTC technical analysis, it was observed that the price has failed to re-enter the ascending channel identified last week, indicating a bearish shift in the market structure. After this rejection, the price has gradually trended downwards over the recent weekend. Currently, BTC is oscillating around the $42.4K mark. A critical observation is that the next support level is established at $42K, which aligns with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting a confluence of technical significance that may act as a potential floor for price action. Should this support level be compromised, we could anticipate further downside. Conversely, immediate resistance is visible at approximately $44K, presenting an upside of 5.27%. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just above the midpoint at 51, indicating a neutral momentum, reflecting the market's indecision after the recent bearish developments.
On the other hand, ETH has sustained its position within the ascending wedge pattern, demonstrating a contained upward trend within converging trendlines. The price is currently trading near $2.27K, pressing against the lower boundary of the wedge. The persistence within this formation suggests a consolidation phase, with the price oscillating between narrowing price points. The immediate support for ETH lies at $2.24K, presenting a downside of 3.52%. On the flip side, resistance can be anticipated at around $2.3K. The RSI is at 43, which implies a downtrend momentum but is still above the oversold threshold, indicating there is room for further downward movement before the market is considered oversold. This technical posture requires close monitoring as a decisive break out of the wedge could set the direction for the next significant price move.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳