S&P 500 Futures
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Equities pushed higher while DM bonds consolidated (more in Macro & TradFi)
- Hodlnaut creditors rejects restructuring plan and looks to liquidate assets (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- BTC hash ribbon marks a bullish crossover (more in On-Chain)
- ATM IV rose for both BTC & ETH to 66.59% and 73.67% (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC looks to re-test 21400 resistance level (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
The US market remains closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. US and European stocks rose while bonds, especially those on the front end of the curve, sold off on Friday. Asian shares look set to open higher as indicated by equity futures. Data calendar this week includes Chinese Dec GDP and industrial production prints, which markets eye to determine the swift infection wave’s impact on the country’s productivity. The reopening narrative had led large-cap Chinese tech stocks to rally by more than 13% as measured by HSTECH, and meanwhile, the representative of “old economy”, real estate, saw its junk bonds (measured by Premia China USD Property Bond ETF) returning more than 15% YTD and more than doubled from the trough from mid Nov 2022.
Three main US indices closed higher for the long weekend; NASDAQ added 0.73%, SPX 0.44% and closed just short of 4000, and DOW rallied 0.38%. US Treasury bond yields shifted higher between 6-7bps. Dollar regained a little bit of strength against Asian currencies at the open, but momentum had been in favor of Asian exporters with CNY and IDR leading the board YTD, rallying 3-4% against the greenback already.
DeFi & CeFi
- Singapore lending platform Hodlnaut’s creditors reject restructuring plan in favor of liquidation
- Metamask introduces staking feature, allowing users to stake ETH via Lido or Rocketpool
- Crypto.com has announced that it will be cutting 20% of its staff
- LendHub lost $6M in a hack
- Crypto lender Nexo intends to sue Bulgarian government after office raid
- Polygon tests zk-Rollup on its final testnet to gauge performance of zkEVM
Key creditors of crypto lender Hodlnaut rejected a proposed restructuring plan for the company, according to Bloomberg. The creditors seek to liquidate the firm which they believe would better serve their interest in a 11 January filing by Hodlnaut’s interim judicial managers. Hodlnaut's proposed restructuring plan would have allowed the company's directors to continue managing it.
For on-chain, the BTC hash ribbon has seen a bullish crossover. When the 30D MA (green) crosses above the 60D MA (blue), this means that selling pressure from the miners has reduced and are effectively profiting from their operations relative to their costs.
Elsewhere, the 30-day moving average of all exchange netflow on BTC has approached the median. This could be an indicator that holders of BTC are looking to offload some of their holdings due to BTC’s recent run up.
- BTC and ETH funding rate turns positive
- 30-day ATM IV fell for BTC to 47.38% while rising to 60.16% for ETH
- 30-day 25d put skew further eased for BTC to 0.57% and further tightened on ETH to -5.93%
Top 3 CEX USDT perp funding rate arbitrage based on last 24-hour lookback:
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, DOGE vs USDT perps
2) CEX observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & DYDX
@CexyArbBot allows you to customize CEX, 100+ pairs & lookback periods combo
For futures, total liquidations over the past three days came in at $893.9M, with the majority coming from 14 January shorts at $492M.
On the options front, IV further rose across the board as markets continued to rally off a consensus CPI print. Term structures of both majors are still in steep backwardation for the front end of the curve as near-term IV continues to catch a bid, while the curve continues flattening for medium to longer-dated expiries. RV is back into the 50s for BTC and the 60s for ETH. Variance risk premium shrank to 8.93% for BTC and 5.89% for ETH.
On the flow front, most of the volume comes from short-dated options expiring on 20th Jan. On the ETH side, the most popular strategy is the short risk reversal as traders look to hedge their long position against any unfavorable price movements.
Lastly, the DVOL sharply rose to 73 and is now trading at 68.
Crypto Technical Analysis
As for TA, BTC continued its initial rally over the weekend, as price broke the horizontal trend channel and soared by 11.64%. The price trades right below its next resistance level standing at $21,400. Daily RSI has shot above 80 due to its recent momentum, a level last seen in January 2021. On a longer timeframe, weekly RSI has now hit a one-year high, breaking above the neutral level as bullish momentum continues to mount.
ETH continued its rally over the weekend, rising 10.67%. The next resistance level for ETH stands at $1,670 with daily RSI standing at 86.
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Yen tests seven-month high ahead of BOJ policy decision; dollar wobbles
Analysis: Bank of Japan's yield curve control in danger as policy backfires
House Speaker says Democrats should cap spending to avoid U.S. debt default
China, Hong Kong resume high-speed rail link after 3 years of Covid curbs.
First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Surges on Inflation Tailwinds, Hovers Near $21K.
FTX Cleared to Sell LedgerX, Other Assets to Repay Creditors
Cardano Developers Reveal Critical New Toolkit for Ethereum-Compatible Sidechains
Polygon primed for hard fork aimed at reducing gas fee spikes: New details revealed.
Solana Foundation warns about security incident with Mailchimp.
Alameda Research had a $65B secret line of credit with FTX: Report.
Polygon tests zero-knowledge rollups, mainnet integration inbound.
Hodlnaut Creditors Seek Liquidation, Reject Restructuring Plan: Bloomberg
Treehouse Research 🌳