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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Weaker US unemployment data reinforcing expectations of a "soft landing"; South Korea bans short-selling of stocks (More in Macro & TradFi)
- OpenSea lays off 50% of staff with severance in preparation for version 2.0 launch; Fake Ledger Live app sneaks into Microsoft’s app store, $588K stolen (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- Crypto investor maneuvers LINK; Ethereum accumulates, signaling bullish DeFi engagement (More in On-Chain)
- BTC contango stability and declining bullish sentiment; ETH shows increased short-term IV and rising skewness across tenors (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC's bullish 4-hour chart signals potential growth; ETH maintains an uptrend with possible resistance challenges ahead (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
According to the most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US job growth slowed in October, attributed in part to strikes by the United Auto Workers (UAW) against major car makers, leading to a decline in manufacturing payrolls. Additionally, annual wage growth was the slowest in nearly two and a half years, suggesting a softening in labor market conditions. The report indicated that the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, the highest since January 2022, and the economy added 101,000 fewer jobs in August and September than initially estimated. This data is reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may halt interest rate increases, aiming for a "soft landing" for the economy.
Meanwhile, South Korea will ban stock short-selling until June 2024 to allow regulatory enhancements. The ban on trading with borrowed shares, a fundamental element of short selling, will apply to companies in the Kospi 200 Index and Kosdaq 150 Index. The move follows revelations of illegal naked short-selling by global investment banks, causing market turmoil and undermining fair price formation. South Korea aims to level the playing field for retail investors by narrowing short-selling requirements between institutions and individual investors, seeking stronger penalties for illegal short-selling, and launching investigations into global banks' short-selling transactions. However, reimposing a full ban on short selling may hinder the nation's efforts to move from Emerging Market to Developed Market status.
On Friday, November 3, 2023, the US stock market saw a strong performance, wrapping up a strong week. The Nasdaq rose by 1.4%, marking its biggest one-week gain in the year at 6.6%. The S&P 500 increased by 0.9%, finishing the week up 5.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%, resulting in a 5.1% rise over the week. Notably, Apple shares fell due to its fourth consecutive quarter of declining revenue, Walt Disney Company shares gained as it took full control of streaming service Hulu, and Walgreens Boots Alliance shares jumped as it cut bonuses for corporate staff to manage financial difficulties.
DeFi & CeFi
- OpenSea lays off 50% of staff with severance in preparation for version 2.0 launch
- Fake Ledger Live app sneaks into Microsoft’s app store, $588K stolen
- Monero’s community wallet loses all funds after attack
- Aave pauses several markets after reports of feature issue
- Fraud trial of Mango Markets exploiter behind alleged $116M theft pushed to April
- Georgia's central bank taps Ripple for digital currency pilot project
- Yuga Labs announced partnership with Magic Eden to launch the new Magic Eden ETH marketplace
OpenSea, a leading non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace, announced layoffs as part of its efforts to transform the platform into a more streamlined and nimble OpenSea 2.0. Approximately 50% of employees across all functions will be affected, and middle managers will be reduced. The affected employees will receive four-month severance packages, accelerated equity vesting, and six months of continued healthcare and mental healthcare. Earlier this year, OpenSea faced community pushback when it announced the retirement of its operator filter feature, which allowed creators to blacklist marketplaces that did not enforce royalties. Yuga Labs, the creator of the popular Bored Ape Yacht Club, was one of the first to respond by announcing its plans to wind back from the OpenSea marketplace.
In other news, users have lost nearly $600K in Bitcoin to a fake Ledger Live application available on Microsoft's app store, as verified with blockchain sleuth ZachXBT. The counterfeit app, named "Ledger Live Web3," closely mimicked the legitimate "Ledger Live" app, designed to facilitate user interaction with Ledger hardware wallets. This deception resulted in significant losses, with the scammer receiving approximately 16.8 Bitcoin, equivalent to $588,000, through 38 transactions using the wallet address "bc1q....y64q." Alarmingly, this fake app appeared on Microsoft's app store as early as October 19, and it's not the first incident of its kind. Ledger emphasized on its official Twitter account that secure downloads are exclusively available on its official website. Currently, the fraudulent app has been removed from Microsoft’s app store.
According to @spotonchain, a whale investor has recently notably deposited 500K LINK tokens, valued at approximately $5.83 million, into Coinbase, at a price point of $11.7 per LINK. Notably, this investor retains an equal amount of LINK, with their current holdings still valued at $5.87 million, and has realized an estimated profit of $3.98 million, a 50.7% return on investment in LINK. For other investors, this move suggests that the whale is likely taking profit for LINK tokens in Coinbase, and it may be a good time for other investors to follow this trade cautiously.
In other news, a significant Ethereum whale accumulation pattern has been detected by @lookonchain, indicating bullish market behavior. A notable investor recently executed a transfer of $31.8 million in USDT to the Binance exchange, followed by the withdrawal of 8,698 Ethereum—worth roughly $15.94 million—into a hot wallet. This transaction, traceable via Etherscan, suggests an intentional strategy of purchasing Ethereum at advantageous prices and moving it off-exchange for potential DeFi utilization, highlighting confidence in Ethereum's value proposition and the DeFi sector.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH rose to 60.44% and 61.34%, respectively.
- 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC fell to 7.19% while ETH rose to 8.75%.
- The futures market witnessed $270.53M liquidations since Friday, with shorts representing 50.26% of the total.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
The 7-day implied volatility for BTC has increased to 53.55%, while the 30-day implied volatility has slightly increased to 56.10%, suggesting a more pronounced short-term volatility.
Regarding the term structures, BTC has primarily maintained a contango state, with only slight decreases in IVs observed in contracts beyond the 81-day mark. In contrast, ETH has experienced an IV surge in zero-dated options, signifying trader expectations of increased short-term volatility compared to BTC. Apart from the zero-dated contracts, the ETH term structure has also seen an increase in IVs across different tenors on the curve, marking an increase from 1.5-2.7%.
The 25-delta 30-day call-put skew for Bitcoin has decreased from 8.48% to 7.19%. This suggests that the market is calming, and a declining bullish sentiment is emerging among traders. Conversely, the 7-day skew has remained relatively steady, indicating no significant change in short-term market expectations. In contrast, both the 7-day and 30-day skewness for ETH have been on an upward trend. They have risen from 5.93% to 9.48% and from 6.22% to 8.75%, respectively. This indicates traders' growing preference for ETH over BTC in the short to medium term.
During the US Trading Hour, @Paradigm trading activity in BTC options reflects mixed sentiment, with a bearish signal from the sale of 400 contracts of a 29-Dec-23 35000 call and the purchase of 350 contracts of a 24-Nov-23 40000 call. ETH options trades are cautiously optimistic; the purchase of 10635 contracts in a 24-Nov-23 2000/2300 call spread points to a bullish outlook, while the sale of 5000 contracts of a 24-Nov-23 2100 call suggests bearishness or a defensive strategy against short-term downside risk.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Examining the BTC on the 4-hour chart, price is currently trading at 35K, within an ascending channel, indicative of a bullish momentum. The price action is consistently finding support along the lower boundary of this channel, establishing a progressive series of higher lows and higher highs. At present, BTC is transacting within the upper trend line of the channel, which, if surpassed, could lead to a test of the next significant resistance level positioned at approximately $38K, translating to an approximate 7% increase from the current levels. Should the channel's support fail, a downward correction might encounter substantial support near the $32.2K mark. The RSI is positioned at 55.12, which suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, maintaining a neutral trajectory.
Moving on to ETH’s 4-hour chart, the price is oscillating around the $1.89K mark, maintaining a position within an ascending wedge, signaling a bullish trend in the current market phase. This price action is characterized by a consistent development of higher lows, which is a strong indication of sustained buying interest. A breakout above the channel could potentially target the next resistance at approximately $1.95K, a 3% increase from the current price point. On the flip side, should the price fall through the channel's support, it might find dynamic support at the $1.81K level, which is the 200-period SMA, corresponding to a decrease of nearly 3.7%. The current RSI reading of 66.72 leans towards the overbought territory, suggesting strong buying pressure, although investors should remain cautious of potential trend reversals.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳