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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- U.S. economy grows 5.2% in Q3; U.S.-India ties face assassination plot strain (More in Macro & TradFi)
- Pando Asset joins spot Bitcoin ETF race, BlackRock meets with SEC again; FTX gets court approval to sell $873M worth of Grayscale, Bitwise Trust assets (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- Whale wallet 0xaa1 demonstrates aggressive ETH accumulation strategy; GSR's notable 6.86M MATIC withdrawal from Binance indicates market confidence (More in On-Chain)
- Bitcoin market displays mixed sentiment; Contango pattern persists in term structure (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC ascends in triangle pattern, testing $38K; ETH consolidates around 2.03K level (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
The U.S. economy exhibited stronger growth than initially estimated in the third quarter of 2023, with a revised increase in GDP of 5.2%, marking the fastest expansion in nearly two years. This uptick is primarily attributed to heightened business investment and government spending. Consumer spending, though robust, was revised down to a 3.6% increase, reflecting a deceleration in services spending. Notably, the revision in business investment from a decline to a gain, particularly in structural outlays, and a stronger-than-reported housing sector, contributed significantly to this economic surge. Despite these positive developments, the Gross Domestic Income (GDI) grew only 1.5%, indicating a more moderate pace of income generation and costs in goods and services production. The blend of GDP and GDI growth rates underscores a substantial recovery from the year’s first half. This economic resilience, bolstered by a strong job market and consumer spending, particularly in travel and events, hints at a slight cooling as the year ends, but not a significant downturn. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure showed a softer rise, suggesting manageable inflationary pressures.
In a recent indictment, the U.S. Justice Department accused an unnamed Indian government official of masterminding a failed assassination attempt on Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York City. This development strains the Biden administration's efforts to strengthen ties with India to counter China's influence. The indictment, which led to the arrest of Indian citizen Nikhil Gupta in the Czech Republic, highlights escalating tensions involving Sikh separatist movements. The plot's revelation underscores the U.S.’ geopolitical complexities in balancing its strategic interests with human rights concerns, particularly as it seeks to forge a robust alliance with India in the Indo-Pacific region. This case challenges the U.S.-India relationship and draws attention to the broader issue of transnational political violence and its implications for international diplomacy.
Yesterday's trading session saw U.S. equities closing nearly unchanged, with minor fluctuations across major indices, as positive GDP data mitigated recession concerns. The Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.14%, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw minimal shifts, decreasing by 0.09% and increasing by 0.04%, respectively. Notably, CrowdStrike experienced a 10.40% surge following its earnings beat and an upward revision of its annual guidance, reflecting a robust demand for cybersecurity solutions. Investors are now keenly awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, a critical indicator of consumer spending, scheduled for release at 21:30 SGT tonight.
DeFi & CeFi
- Pando Asset joins spot Bitcoin ETF race, BlackRock meets with SEC again
- FTX gets court approval to sell $873M worth of Grayscale, Bitwise Trust assets
- Celo developer proposes mid-January timeline for its choice of Layer-2
- U.S. Treasury campaigning for amplified powers to chase crypto overseas
- Binance will cease support for BUSD stablecoin on Dec. 15
- Digital crypto finance firm SoFi hands its business to Blockchain.com
- Sinbad crypto mixer sanctioned by U.S. Treasury for North Korea allegations
- Crypto custody Copper to start digital securities brokerage in Abu Dhabi
- Dogecoin-funded SpaceX ‘Doge-1’ moon mission receives key approval
- Blockchain messaging platform Wormhole raises $225M at $2.5B valuation
Swiss asset manager Pando Asset filed an S-1 form with the SEC seeking approval for its spot Bitcoin ETF. The Pando Asset Spot Bitcoin Trust is pending approval to trade on the Cboe BZX Exchange with Coinbase as a custodian and referencing CME's CF Bitcoin Reference Rate for Bitcoin pricing. The SEC held discussions with Invesco and BlackRock, addressing concerns about the impact of the in-kind model on balance sheets and risks to market makers' entities during redemption. BlackRock proposed an approach to resolve these issues, potentially satisfying the SEC's concerns about the balance sheet of the U.S. Registered Broker/Dealer entity.
In other news, a recent Delaware bankruptcy court document gave the FTX estate authorization to sell its trust assets, including shares of Grayscale and Bitwise investment funds. FTX's trust assets consist of shares in various Grayscale funds, such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and a Bitwise crypto index fund, valued at $744M as of Oct. 25. Recent market data suggests that these holdings appreciated roughly 17% to $873M since Oct. 25, potentially due to the recent surge in cryptocurrency prices. The filing highlighted that the debtors have the authority to carry out these sales based on their reasonable business judgment. Additionally, the court expanded Galaxy's role, a crypto investment firm, to support FTX in these asset sales.
Recently, @Spotonchain has reported that the notable cryptocurrency whale, identified as wallet 0xaa1, has recently made a significant move by purchasing an additional 4,869 ETH with 10 million USDC, averaging a cost of $2,054 each, both 13 and 10 hours ago. This latest acquisition is a part of their ongoing investment strategy, as the whale has been actively buying ETH from Binance and DEXs since October 13. In total, the whale has amassed 19,871 ETH, equivalent to $38.4 million, at an average price of $1.9K. Notably, this investment has already yielded an unrealized profit of 1.96 million, marking a 5.1% increase. Currently, the whale's portfolio boasts a substantial holding of 28,310 ETH, valued at $57.5 million, reflecting a strong confidence in the ETH market and a clear pattern of strategic accumulation.
On the other hand, @Lookonchain reported significant player GSR’s withdrawal of 6.86 million MATIC, worth about $4.3 million, from Binance within two days. This substantial withdrawal from an exchange is typically indicative of increased confidence and strategic portfolio realignment, signaling potential readiness for major transactions. Such a move is often a precursor to shifts in market dynamics and an enhancement in investor sentiment, underscoring the importance of monitoring large-scale asset movements in predicting market trends.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH rose to 51.9% and 50.17%, respectively.
- The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH rose to 5.79% and 2.90% respectively.
- The futures market witnessed $42.24M liquidations, with longs representing 56.78%.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
Today's data shows mixed sentiment in the Bitcoin market: the 30-day implied volatility has risen to 48.55%, suggesting heightened expectations for long-term price fluctuations. However, the 7-day implied volatility has decreased to 43.98%, indicating a reduced focus on short-term movements. This divergence reflects a market balancing short-term caution with long-term uncertainty for BTC’s price.
The term structure for BTC reveals a contango pattern, and IV remains relatively unchanged from yesterday.
Today's update in the market's risk perception is reflected in the 25-delta call-put skew. The 7-day skew has seen a decrease, moving from 5.45% to 5.20%, indicating a reduced concern for short-term upside risk. On the other hand, the 30-day skew has witnessed an increase from 5.59% to 5.79%, signifying a growing anticipation of volatility in the medium-term. This contrasting movement in the skews underscores a market trend of decreasing short-term risk concerns while gearing up for potential medium-term volatility.
During the @Paradigm Americas Session on 29-Nov-23, the cryptocurrency options market saw strategic moves in BTC and ETH options. In BTC, traders executed a complex strategy by selling a 250 contract Call Fly for the 29-Dec-23 at the 36000/40000/44000 strikes, indicating a play on potential volatility. This was paired with a bullish purchase of 150 contracts of the 29-Dec-23 50000 call, suggesting confidence in an upward trend. In the ETH market, optimism was evident with the acquisition of 5000 contracts of the 26-Jan-24 4400 call, reflecting a bullish forecast. Simultaneously, a cautious strategy was apparent in the sale of 1250 contracts of a put calendar spread, combining 8-Dec-23 1800 puts with 29-Dec-23 1700 puts, targeting short-term downside protection and time decay advantages.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Inspection of the weekly BTC chart with Heikin Ashi candlesticks indicates the prevailing uptrend may be losing momentum. Despite current bullish price action at $37.7K, the most recent candlestick exhibits a smaller body with a lower shadow, hinting at potential exhaustion among buyers. This deceleration in the uptrend is underscored by the high RSI reading of 78.52, situated in overbought territory which often precedes a forthcoming consolidation or retracement.
The 4-hour chart of BTC is still in an ascending triangle pattern, signaling potential bullish continuation, especially with the price action testing the upper resistance of the pattern around $38K. This pattern is characterized by a flat upper resistance line at around $38K, and a rising lower trendline, indicating higher lows as buying pressure increases. The convergence of these lines points to a potential breakout. The 50 and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) enhance this bullish narrative by providing additional support beneath the current price level, reinforcing the triangle's lower boundary. However, a decisive breach below the lower trendline could signal a shift in momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the next significant support level near 32K, representing an approximate 14.25% decline from the current price. The 4-hour RSI hovers in a neutral zone, neither overbought or oversold, which may allow for a substantial move following a breakout.
Moving on to ETH, its 4-hour chart reveals a state of consolidation with the price oscillating around the 2.03K level. Currently, the price is experiencing a slight retreat from its recent high, indicating a consolidation phase within a broader uptrend. This is characterized by a series of higher lows and relatively flat highs, a pattern suggesting an ascending triangle, which typically denotes continuation. A breakout above the current consolidation zone could see Ethereum targeting the next resistance level near 2.1K, representing a potential upside of approximately 3.4%. On the downside, should the price breach below the ascending trendline support, the next level of significant support lies near the 2K mark, which coincides with the 50 SMA, acting as a dynamic support level. The RSI stands at 45.90, which aligns with the neutral zone, but leaning towards the lower end, indicating that there might be room for downward movement before reaching oversold conditions. The market participants will likely watch these technical cues closely to determine the potential direction of the next significant move.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳