S&P 500 Futures
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- US senate passed a $1.7tn government funding bill (more in Macro & TradFi)
- OpenOcean incorporates 12 Aptos-based liquidity sources; Neutrino Releases $USDN * Resolution Plan; Rubic Integrates Curve Finance (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- Preference for self-custody after FTX continues growing as BTC in self-custody reaches ATHs (more in On-Chain)
- ETH traders expect price movement in near term with bear diagonal spread and bull diagonal spread (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC and ETH whipsaw before settling at weekly average levels (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
Fresh data (US Q3 GDP +3.2% actual vs 2.9% consensus; PCE index +4.7% vs consensus +4.6%) suggested a more-resilient-than-expected US economy and stickier inflation, diminishing market’s bet on Fed slowdown. Stocks reversed all of Wednesday’s rebound and trade on a weak footing into the holiday weekend. On the geopolitics front, the US Senate passed a $1.7tn government funding bill which includes funneling $47bn towards Ukraine’s defense effort. In Asia markets, China’s sweeping COVID waves are delaying logistics and jamming key infrastructure as common workers are infected.
US stock indices fell after upbeat economic data spelled more tightening for traders; NASDAQ closed by 2.67% lower, S&P 1.63% and DOW 1.2%. 10-year US Treasury yields rose higher by 3bps to trade close to 3.7%. Both oil benchmarks tried to push higher originally but gave up gains following the broader market weakness.
DeFi & CeFi
- Polygon launches its second zkEVM testnet
- OpenOcean incorporates 12 Aptos-based liquidity sources
- Neutrino Releases $USDN Resolution Plan, to increase $USDN reserves and stabilize its peg
- OP Labs announces Goerli's Bedrock migration on January 12
- Rubic Integrates Curve Finance
- Bifrost launches $vBNC, the liquid staking variant of its original token $BNC
- Uniswap community approves proposal on Community Governance Process Changes
- SBF was released from custody after paying a $250m bond
On January 12, OP Labs will move Optimism's Goerli testnet to Bedrock. OP Labs is working with node operators to guarantee a seamless transfer without impacting users or applications. Bedrock, OP Labs' new decentralized Rollup architecture, reuses as much Ethereum code, infrastructure, and design principles as feasible. It will lower prices, add ZK proofs, and enable multiple execution clients for Optimism. OP Labs will propose Optimism mainnet migration after Goerli migration.
The Uniswap community voted to reform the community government process. Nearly all voters support it. The proposal reduces off-chain Snapshot votes to one and raises the Snapshot poll yes-vote threshold from 50k $UNI to 10m $UNI. It also proposes a 7-day "Request for Comment" process before the Snapshot vote to allow the community time to generate views and submit feedback.
Looking on-chain, the trend of self-custody has continued after the fall of FTX, with the amount of BTC in self-custody reaching an ATH of 18.2M, while exchange balances of BTC continue to fall to a 4-year low.
Elsewhere, the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse momentum has flipped positive for the first time since August 2021. Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse measures the BTC flow from Coinbase to derivative exchanges, and historically bull markets have been linked to heightened levels of fund transfers from spot to derivative exchanges. This metric is approaching a level that could possibly signal a trend change, as similar levels of activity occurred at the start of the bull market in 2015 and 2019.
- BTC and ETH funding rate remain positive
- BTC and ETH 30-day ATM IV fell from 50% to 47% and 62% to 60% respectively.
- 30-day 25-delta put skew tightened slightly for both BTC and ETH, going from -10% to -9% and -7% to -6% respectively
For futures, total liquidations came in at $34.9M, with the majority coming from longs at $18.2M.
IV fell across the curve for both BTC and ETH. Term structure is still in contango, largely unchanged. The 30-day RV for BTC continues to fall and is now at 31%. Put/call ratio for BTC and ETH remains relatively unchanged at 0.53 and 0.24 respectively.
On the flow front, most of the volume comes from short-dated options expiring. On the ETH side, the 2 most predominant strategies are bull diagonal spread and bear diagonal spread. It seems that traders are expecting some price movement in the near future.
Lastly, the VIX climbed higher and is now trading at 21.98.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Volatility hit BTC during US trading hours as it fell 1.23% before bouncing back up in the same night. Price currently sits at $16.79K near its support level. The H4 RSI dipped slightly but now sits at a neutral level of 50.
Looking at ETH, prices plunged 2.58% before recovering, wicking 4.46% to the range high at $1,239 and finally settling lower at $1,215 the same level that ETH have been ranging yesterday and the day before. The RSI took a big dip before spiking up again settling at 55. The H4 RSI continues to hover in the neutral zone after the large volatile session.
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