S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
GM Treehouser 🌳
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- The European Central Bank hiked by 75bps to 1.5%; Tech stock rout continues as Meta sinks after disappointing results (more in Macro & TradFi)
- Google introduces cloud-based blockchain node service on Ethereum; SBF mentioned that FTX is working on creating a stablecoin (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- BTC hits 4 months high in trading volume and on-chain activity (more in On-Chain)
- Block traders remain bullish according to Paradigm (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC and ETH lose steam during Thursday trading as they hold the line at key resistance-support levels (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
GM! The European Central Bank raised interest rates again on Thursday by 75 basis points to 1.5% - the highest rate since 2009. ECB President Christine Lagarde also cited that "we will have further rate increases in the future,” in its bid to fight off a historic surge in inflation. Elsewhere, the US economy expanded by an annualized 2.6% QoQ in Q3 2022, exceeding expectations of a 2.4% increase and rebounding from a contraction in the first half of the year. In addition, new orders for US manufactured durable goods increased 0.4% MoM in September, up from 0.2% in August although missing expectations of 0.6%.
US equities ended mixed as the S&P 500 was down -0.61%, the DJIA rose 0.61%, and the NASDAQ lost -1.63%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ underperformed as Meta reported another quarter of declining revenue, sending its stock down by more than 24% and shedding more than $65 billion in market cap. US 10 Year Treasury yields dipped 7bps to 3.93%. Lastly, WTI Crude Oil prices rose 0.5% to $88.67 a barrel amid reports that the price cap on Russian oil that had been proposed by G7 countries is on the verge of being effectively abandoned.
DeFi & CeFi
- Google introduces cloud-based blockchain node service for Ethereum
- Sam Bankman-Fried announces that FTX is working on creating a stablecoin
- Consensys commits $2.4M annually to launch MetaMask Grants DAO
- NFT marketplace LooksRare switches to optional royalties where 25% of protocol fees goes to creators
- NEAR-based DEX, Spin launches perpetual contracts trading platform
- Kava Network launches Kava 11 mainnet, with liquid staking live
- Web3 payment company, Reap closes $40 million round led by Hashkey Capital
Google introduces cloud-based blockchain node service for Ethereum. The company said its Google Cloud Blockchain Node Engine would be a “fully managed node-hosting service that can minimize the need for node operations,” meaning that Google would be responsible for monitoring node activity and restarting them during outages. A node is a type of computer that runs a blockchain’s software to validate and store the history of transactions on a blockchain’s network. At the time of launch, Google will only be supporting Ethereum nodes.
FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried revealed that the crypto exchange is considering developing its own stablecoin in an interview with European publication The Big Whale. FTX is “trying to find the perfect partners” to work with, and its users may be “hearing something from us on that topic in the not-too-distant future,” Bankman-Fried said.
Santiment has noted that BTC's trading volume & address activity have both just hit 4-month highs, holding up better than most assets amidst the backdrop of falling prices.
The amount of BTC transferred on-chain has not decreased despite months of depressed price levels, as this figure continues to grow year over year (YoY). The amount of BTC transferred on-chain in 2022 growing by 18% YoY so far, suggesting that BTC adoption is still increasing.
- Funding rate remains negative for BTC perps and positive for ETH perps
- 30-day IV decreases for BTC and ETH to 54.5% and 75.3% respectively
- 30-day 25d put skew increases in magnitude for BTC to -4.2% and turns negative for ETH to -0.62%
For futures, total liquidations yesterday amounted to $109.28M, of which 58.5% were long liquidations. BTC and ETH futures OI are also down 7.6% and 6.8% respectively.
On the options front, for BTC and ETH, Put-Call ratio has increased to 0.73 and 0.74 respectively. IV for both BTC and ETH has also dropped, mainly across the November expiries. Popular traded structures include the bull diagonal call spreads for BTC and call calendar spreads for ETH. Flows remain overall bullish for both BTC and ETH with covered calls being purchased through Paradigm.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Looking at TA, BTC fell 2.77% on Thursday as price retreated from its month highs. Price stopped just shy of 21K before coming back down to the recently broken resistance level of $20.2K. The H1 RSI has retreated from overbought condition to under 45. A close above $19.5K for BTC would mark a second consecutive green candle. Should BTC find support at $20.2K for the week, it would mark a strong milestone for bulls as BTC aims to reclaim $21K.
For ETH, price also retreated from monthly highs at $1,561. ETH fell 3.51% on Thursday finding itself at its resistance turn support level at $1,515. H1 RSI has taken a similar trajectory as BTC falling from extremely overbought levels to under 50. Bulls eye a close above $1,518 while the closest support below is around $1,364.
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BOJ to keep ultra-low interest rates, defy global tightening trend
Pinterest soars as revenue beat stands out in social media gloom
Biden says U.S. Q3 growth shows economic recovery ‘continuing to power forward’
U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly fall in September
Apple beats but comes up light on iPhone sales and services.
Intel announces up to $10 billion in cost reductions through 2025.
Elon Musk now in charge of Twitter, CEO and CFO have left, sources say.
Market Wrap: Bitcoin Holding Steady Over $20K, Ether Is Flat, Dogecoin Soars.
First Mover Asia: Scams on Binance’s BNB Chain Highlight Weaknesses in Quality Control; Bitcoin Sags.
Aptos Token Rebounds After Upstart Blockchain’s Dismal Debut.
Crowdfunding Platform StartEngine to Acquire Rival SeedInvest From Circle.
Crypto Exchange FTX Is Working on Creating a Stablecoin: Report.
Team Finance exploited for $14.5M during protocol migration despite contract audit.
Telegram launches marketplace to auction rare username handles.
Core Scientific reveals financial distress in SEC filing, says its end may be near.
Coinbase, Alameda-backed Mara launches African crypto wallet service.
ConsenSys commits $2.4M annually to launch MetaMask Grants DAO.
THORChain halts its platform due to an unknown bug, no issues of insolvency reported
Pantera Capital’s early-stage token fund is down 71% this year: Exclusive
Celo ecosystem projects raise $77.3M in support of interoperability, ReFi.
Solana-based protocol seeking to decentralize ride-sharing raises $9M.
Bain Capital Crypto Leads $3.3M Round for Privacy-Focused Identity Protocol.
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