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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Republican speaker Mike Johnson is working on a plan to avoid a government shutdown; ByteDance offering to buy back stock options to boost confidence (More in Macro & TradFi)
- Ark Invest launching new suite of digital asset ETFs with 21Shares; U.S. bill proposes outlawing government use of China-made blockchains and Tether's USDT (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- LINK hits 19-month price high with dormant token activation; STORJ sees value surge and potential strategic team sale (More in On-Chain)
- BTC term structure signals increased short-term volatility; Comparative skew data reveals stronger bullish sentiment for BTC over ETH (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- Both BTC and ETH are approaching their resistances within their respective technical formations (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
Speaker Mike Johnson, the top Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives, is expected to decide within the next two days on a plan to prevent a potential government shutdown. The House, controlled by Republicans, and the Democratic-led Senate have slightly over a week to reach an agreement on a stopgap spending measure to keep federal agencies operational beyond November 17 when current funding expires. Despite some bipartisan discussions, internal divisions among Republicans are complicating the process, with hardliners pushing for additional spending cuts. Johnson's choice will test his leadership, coming just two weeks after he assumed the role. The Senate has passed several appropriations bills with bipartisan support and is poised to take action on a stopgap measure soon.
Meanwhile, ByteDance, the Chinese tech giant behind TikTok, is offering to buy back stock options from its employees at an increased price compared to earlier this year. This move is aimed at boosting employee motivation and confidence following a challenging period for the company. ByteDance has informed employees outside the U.S. that they can sell restricted stock units (RSUs) or options at $160 each, up from the $155 price offered in April. The company is providing this option to motivate its employees and enhance liquidity. ByteDance has faced increased regulation, valuation drops, and scrutiny, especially concerning TikTok's data handling in the U.S. This buyback is part of a broader trend among private tech companies to instill confidence and provide liquidity to employees.
On Wednesday, U.S. stock markets closed with mixed results. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended their longest winning streaks in two years, each gaining approximately 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1%. This follows a period of strong market performance since the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision, which has bolstered confidence that the Fed will maintain stable interest rates at its upcoming meeting in December. Amid this, Amgen was the best-performing stock in the Dow, gaining 0.8%, while companies like Intel, Chevron, Honeywell, and 3M saw declines.
DeFi & CeFi
- Ark Invest launching new suite of digital asset ETFs with 21Shares
- U.S. bill proposes outlawing government use of China-made blockchains and Tether's USDT
- U.S. SEC to open talks with Grayscale on spot Bitcoin ETF push
- Binance rolls out its first ever self-custody Web3 wallet
- Trust Wallet announced the launch of WaaS (Wallet as a Service) to businesses
- Near Foundation and Polygon Labs collaborate to build ZK solution
- Blockchain game Illuvium goes mainstream with looming Epic Games Store listing
- HSBC to launch tokenized securities custody service with Ripple-owned Metaco
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest is partnering with 21Shares to launch a suite of ETFs focused on digital assets. The ETFs will utilize on-chain signals and invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts, along with companies engaged in the blockchain industry. The products are set to be listed on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) and will begin trading next week. Ark Invest clarified that the funds do not provide direct exposure to digital assets and investors seeking such exposure should explore alternatives. The move comes amid anticipation for regulatory approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs from various financial institutions.
In other news, U.S. lawmakers have introduced the CLARITY Act, barring U.S. government officials from engaging with Chinese blockchain firms and Tether's parent company, iFinex. The bill addresses concerns about national security and data privacy related to China's heavy investment in blockchain infrastructure. It specifically prohibits officials from transacting with The Spartan Network, The Conflux Network, and Red Date Technology, which is involved in China's national blockchain project and its digital yuan. The legislation directs key officials to devise a plan to counter the risks posed by China's and other foreign adversaries' blockchain technology development. This follows a security-driven ban on government employees' use of TikTok earlier this year.
In a recent analysis by @Santiment, LINK was found to have ascended to the 12th largest crypto by market cap, with significant activation of dormant tokens and heavy accumulation in wallets holding 10K to 10M LINK. The price has peaked at a 19-month high of $14.60, while key stakeholders have amassed 4.7% of the supply recently. The average age of the token in wallets has also decreased, suggesting that the recent pump has drawn many new buyers to the token, pointing to a potentially more liquid market signifying growth in the ecosystem.
On the other hand, @lookonchain also reports a significant uptick in STORJ's value, with a roughly 60% surge today alone. Complementing this rise, the Storj Team Wallet has executed a noteworthy transaction, depositing 2M STORJ, equivalent to 1.43M USD, into Binance recently. Such a sizable deposit into Binance suggests the Storj team may be positioning for a strategic sale, which could significantly influence STORJ's market behavior.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH rose to 57.58% and 56.14%, respectively.
- The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH rose to 8.73% and 6.59%, respectively.
- The futures market witnessed $77.48M liquidations since yesterday, with longs representing 68.22% of the total.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
The 7-day implied volatility for Bitcoin (BTC) has surged from 46.83% to 52.55%, signaling increased short-term market volatility. Meanwhile, the 30-day implied volatility has also risen from 50.08% to 53.80%, indicating a more volatile outlook for the month ahead, possibly influenced by the Grayscale-SEC discussions on a potential Bitcoin ETF.
Meanwhile, BTC's term structure shows a significant climb in implied volatility (IV) for short-dated options over yesterday's figures, implying an anticipation of increased near-term volatility. The structure maintains largely in contango, with the IV peaking around the 78-day tenor before it starts to converge, reflecting a market consensus that, despite the near-term volatility expectations, will transition into a more stable IV environment as it moves into the mid-term.
BTC's 25-delta 7-day skew has surged from 8.40% to 12.77%, demonstrating a significant rise in short-term bullish sentiment, while its 30-day skew climbed from 6.61% to 8.73%, showing sustained confidence for the month ahead. On the other hand, ETH's 7-day skew increased from 5.20% to 7.61%, indicating a moderate improvement in immediate bullish expectations, with its 30-day skew advancing from 5.71% to 6.59%, revealing a cautiously optimistic medium-term outlook. Overall, the data suggests a stronger bullish sentiment for BTC compared to ETH in both short and medium-term perspectives.
Lastly, as reported by @Paradigm, a bearish sentiment was found in the options market, indicated by the sale of 1,355 call spreads for November 24, 2023, with strikes at $37,000/$40,000, alongside the purchase of 255 puts for the same date with a strike of $31,000, suggesting a hedge against a potential price decline. Ethereum's (ETH) options activity shows a cautious stance with the sale of complex 'custom' options strategies: 4,000 contracts involving the sale of calls for December 29, 2023, at strikes of $1,900 and $2,400, and another 3,000 contracts with a similar structure but with the higher strike at $2,300, indicating a bearish outlook on ETH's price increase potential towards the year's end.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Turning to technical analysis, BTC continues its upward movement on the 4-hour chart. Following a rebound from the 50-period SMA, BTC is steadily approaching the upper boundary of the previously identified rising channel. Notably, the RSI has also seen a significant increase and currently stands at 67.08, just below the overbought threshold. In the short term, BTC is likely to face resistance at around $36.3K, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the channel, pending confirmation of further bullish momentum. Conversely, in the event of a pullback, the price may test the lower boundary of the channel at $34.6K before potentially dropping to the support level at $31.5K, representing a potential decline of approximately 12% from the current level.
Turning to ETH, the analysis from the previous day still largely holds true as the price continues to oscillate within the confines of the identified ascending wedge formation. However, as the price approaches the apex of this pattern, it often signals an imminent decisive move characterized by high volatility. In the event that the trendline of this formation is breached to the downside, the next support level stands at around $1.76K. Conversely, if the bullish momentum persists, ETH would encounter substantial resistance near the $1.91K price level. This level is denoted by the intersection between the upper boundary of the wedge and a horizontal resistance zone that has been tested eight times since April.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳