S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- President Biden set to visit Israel; Vanguard under scrutiny for funnelling US investments into Chinese firms tied to military (More in Macro & TradFi)
- Cointelegraph releases its clarification on sharing false spot Bitcoin ETF news; Uniswap Labs to charge 0.15% fee on crypto swaps involving ETH, USDC, and others (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- Numerous wallets suffered from significant losses following the fake news; LINK holdings by long term whales are reaching a 6 year high (More in On-Chain)
- BTC surges on Cointelegraph false spot Bitcoin ETF news; ETH continues to underscore a contango structure (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- Downward parallel channels observed with both BTC and ETH while the technical indicators of ETH show a grimmer future (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
U.S. President Biden is set to make a significant visit to Israel amid heightened tensions resulting from the devastating Oct. 7 terrorist attacks, the deadliest in the nation's history. This trip, initiated by an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, seeks to bolster U.S.-Israeli solidarity while addressing the escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza. As Israeli retaliatory airstrikes intensify, the Palestinian Ministry of Health reports a staggering 2,808 fatalities and over 10,850 injuries. Concurrently, diplomatic efforts by the U.S. to mediate the situation, including the reopening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, have faced challenges.
In other news, Vanguard, one of the world's foremost asset managers, is under scrutiny after a report by the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) revealed it funnels U.S. investments into Chinese firms tied to the military and those sanctioned for human rights violations, especially in the Xinjiang region, which the U.S. State Department has labeled as a "genocide." This echoes earlier allegations where financial giants BlackRock and MSCI were criticized for their investment strategies in China. Vanguard's involvement is particularly highlighted through its $70B FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, which tracks companies in emerging markets. This news comes amid wider U.S. regulatory discussions about restricting investments in specific Chinese tech sectors and firms.
US equities predominantly saw a gain in the previous trading session as the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and DJIA registered increases of 1.06%, 1.20%, and 0.93%. Equities mostly climb as traders gear up for US Retail Sales data. In Asia, South Korea's Kospi also gained 0.89% and China's CSI 300 dropped 1.00%, with China set to release its third-quarter gross domestic product estimate on Wednesday.
DeFi & CeFi
- Cointelegraph releases its clarification on sharing false spot Bitcoin ETF news
- Uniswap Labs to charge 0.15% fee on crypto swaps involving ETH, USDC, and others
- Manta's Layer-2 blockchain plans to use OP Stack over Polygon
- Binance to stop accepting new U.K. users to comply with ad rules
- Tether freezes 32 crypto addresses linked to terrorism in Israel, Ukraine
Blockchain news outlet Cointelegraph has released a clarification for the fake spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval news posted several hours ago, claiming that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved BlackRock’s iShares spot Bitcoin ETF. Cointelegraph acted on an unconfirmed screenshot shared on Twitter, originating from an unverified source who claimed it was from the Bloomberg Terminal. Cointelegraph did not publish an article with this incorrect information, but the erroneous Twitter post had an irreversible impact. A subsequent internal investigation also revealed that the standard procedure for posting breaking news on social media, which requires source verification before posting, was not followed.
Meanwhile, Uniswap Labs, the company behind decentralized exchange Uniswap, is introducing a 0.15% fee on trades involving tokens such as ETH and USDC, but only for trades executed through Uniswap Labs' front end. This fee is separate from Uniswap's existing "protocol fee" managed by governance voters and is aimed at funding the company's operations. Uniswap's creator, Hayden Adams, noted that their fee is one of the lowest in the industry and will support research, development, and expansion of the crypto and DeFi ecosystem. In addition, Uniswap has clarified that stablecoin swaps and trades between ether and wrapped ether will not be subject to this fee.
Following the dissemination of fake news by Cointelegraph regarding the approval of a BTC spot ETF, numerous investors entered the market with the intent of capitalizing on the opportunity. One particular whale, as identified by @lookonchain, invested $613K to acquire approximately 20.5 BTC. However, after various parties clarified that the ETF approval statements were false, the whale swiftly liquidated their holdings for $564K, incurring a loss of nearly $50K within a mere 10-minute timeframe.
In a different context, as Chainlink's LINK token gained over 30% in value in the past five weeks, @santimentfeed observed that LINK whale wallets, characterized by addresses holding 100K to 1M LINKs, have been accumulating the token vigorously during this period of price appreciation. Specifically, these addresses added 5.12M LINKs over the past five weeks, marking a six-year high. Simultaneously, retail traders are taking profits in anticipation of a potential downside reversal, which has yet to materialize. This shows a divergence in opinions between retail and long-term whale investors which can generally be interpreted as a bullish signal for the token.
- Funding rates remain positive for both BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH increased significantly, now sitting at 42.47% and 37.86%, respectively.
- 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC flipped positive at 1.89% while ETH sits at -2.03%.
- The futures market witnessed a massive $189.14M worth of liquidations, with shorts representing 72.02% of the total.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
In the recent 24-hour analysis, BTC's IV (Implied Volatility) has surged significantly following the Cointelegraph saga. The 7-day IV now sits at 38.41%, paralleled by the 30-day IV's gain from 37.66%, indicating the highest market volatility in a 30-day period.
Turning our attention to term structures, BTC and ETH continue to underscore a contango structure, with minimal changes across the different tenors on the curve over the last 24 hours. The front end of the curve saw a marginal increase, likely resulting from the fake BTC spot ETF news.
Diving into the skew dynamics, despite the confirmation of the news being fake, 30-day and 7-day 25-delta (C-P) skew still both flipped positive in a continued upward trajectory, gaining to 1.73% and 2.27% respectively, suggesting that investors are continuingly, if not increasingly, bullish on BTC despite the fake news saga.
Based on @Paradigm's data through the recent US Session Hours, significant BTC option activities reveal a primary theme of profit-taking from October call positions. This comes after a volatile $2000 price swing within 25 minutes of the Cointelegraph news leak. Specific BTC activities include the acquisition of 625x Oct 29K / Nov 30K call calendars and 500x Oct 28K / Dec 28K 1x2 call calendars. Moreover, 450x Oct 30K calls were sold.
Crypto Technical Analysis
On BTC's 4-hour chart, the asset has surged to 28.3K, marking a 5.41% ascent, decisively breaking past the 27.9K resistance within the last 24 hours. Impressively, BTC has also broken above all three major Simple Moving Averages (50, 100, and 200), which is a bullish signal. However, caution is advised - the price has not fully overcome the resistance band, which ends at 26.4K. The last time BTC rose to this level on October 2nd, it failed to sustain above the resistance, leading to a 6.6% retracement over the subsequent fortnight. Notably, the current RSI reading at 75.96 indicates an overbought market condition, with a significant support anchored at 25.8K.
Examining ETH on the 4-hour chart, the digital asset currently hovers around $1.59K, actively challenging the pivotal 1.6K support-turned-resistance level. This behavior mirrors the dynamics observed on 12th September, when ETH experienced a similar trajectory—initially dipping below 1.6K before undertaking a reversal. The 50, 100, and 200 SMAs are also clustered around the $1.6K to $1.61K range, indicating that this is a significant area of contention for ETH. Historically, around mid-September, there's a noticeable pattern where ETH broke below this SMA cluster, hinting at the current resistance strength. If ETH manages to surpass this threshold, it could target the subsequent resistance positioned at 1.73K, representing a potential 9.06% gain from its current valuation. However, failure to penetrate this resistance may direct ETH towards the immediate support at 1.46K. Additionally, with an RSI registering at 69.3, the market is verging on overbought conditions, warranting close observation.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳