S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Conflicts continue between US and China; Facebook to launch a new subscription service similar to Twitter Blue (more in Macro & TradFi)
- OpenSea announces 0% fee and removes blocklist of other NFT marketplace (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- BUSD maintains its peg despite 2.5B outflow (more in On-Chain)
- Term structure flipped back to contango as near-dated IVs crash (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC and ETH reject heavily from $25K and $1.7K respectively (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
The conflict between China and the US continues on issues other than the balloon incident. On Friday, China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, criticized the U.S. over its foreign policy and domestic issues, including human rights and racial justice. Yang's remarks came despite ongoing efforts by the U.S. and China to hold bilateral talks and ease tensions between the two countries. While the Biden administration has expressed willingness to engage with China on various issues, it has also taken a tough stance on issues such as human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
On the other hand, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, announced over the weekend that it plans to launch a subscription service called “Meta Verified”. Similar to Twitter, this aims to promote a safe online environment while helping the company to monetize its enormous user base as it continues to face challenges in the advertisement revenue aspect. The subscription service is expected to launch later this year, with more details to be announced in the coming months.
Lastly, major US stocks traded lower with NASDAQ down 0.6%, SPX down 0.3% and DOW down 0.4%. US Treasury bonds closed slightly weaker as 10-year yield rose for four consecutive weeks to 3.83%.
DeFi & CeFi
- Yield Guild Games enters the venture capital space and raises $75M for its first fund
- Helium network migrating to Solana in March
- OpenSea announces 0% fee for a limited time and ditches on-chain enforcement of on-chain creator fees
- Archimedes, a new lending protocol on Ethereum launches its token
- Binance reportedly moved $400M from Binance US to CZ’s company in 1Q21
- Optimism delays Bedrock upgrade to 2 March
- Japan plans to launch a digital yen pilot program in April
OpenSea announced that there would be a 0% fee for a limited time as the battle for the NFT marketplace heats up with Blur.io releasing their new token last Tuesday. OpenSea also adjusted its policy, no longer blocking other NFT marketplaces that do not implement full royalty payment to creators. Competition in the NFT marketplace remains high as it was just last Wednesday that Blur.io released a blog post on how to blocklist OpenSea to receive full royalties.
According to Reuters, in the first 3 months of 2021, Binance US has transferred over $400M to CZ’s trading firm, Merit Peak. Especially after the FTX saga, there is concern over whether Binance US is co-mingling clients' funds. In regards to this article, Binance US tweeted out that Meit Peak only operated on the Binance US platform in 2021 and had since stopped all activities, and that Binance US will never trade nor lend out customer funds.
ETH spikes above $1,700 as shark and whale addresses accumulated 1.88M more ETH since 5 Nov. Sharks and whale hold nearly 47% of the total ETH supply.
BUSD continues to maintain its peg despite the withdrawals continuing. More than 2.5B BUSD has been withdrawn from Binance since 13 Feb when Paxos announced that it would stop minting BUSD.
- BTC and ETH positive funding rates remain stable
- 30-day ATM IV rose to 56.88% and 63.67% for BTC and ETH respectively
- 30-day 25d skew increased to 2.31% and -3.03% for BTC and ETH respectively
Top 3 CEX USDT perp funding rate arbitrage based on last 24-hour lookback:
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, DOGE vs USDT perps
2) CEX observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & DYDX
@CexyArbBot allows you to customize CEX, 100+ pairs & lookback periods combo
For futures, total liquidations over the past 3 days amounted to $246.91M, split roughly evenly between long and short liquidation.
On the options front, near-dated IVs have crashed due to DOVs weekend selling pressure while far-dated IVs edged higher. As a result, term structure is no longer in steep backwardation and flipped back to contango. Meanwhile, BTC 25d put skew flipped to call skew while ETH put skew remains. RV continues to rise with BTC reaching 55.09 and ETH hitting 58.39. Variance risk premium shrank to 1.64% for BTC and 4.93% for ETH respectively.
On the flow side, most of the volume comes from short-dated options expiring on Feb 2023 with strike on 26K and 1.7K for BTC and ETH respectively. The most popular strategy is the bull call spread as topside buying continues.
Lastly, the VIX fell to 20.01.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Onto TA, BTC is forming a double top pattern after its second attempt to break past the $25K mark on 16 February. BTC is now near the $22.5K-$23.9K trading range with 4H RSI falling from 67 to 53. If bears continue to dominate, the next level to watch out for is the $21.5K-$22K resistance zone.
As for ETH, it attempted to again test the $1.7K mark before falling to its $1.66K-$1.69K resistance zone. With RSI falling to 48 at 4H, the next support zone is at the $1,540 level if bearish momentum continues.
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