S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
GM Treehouser 🌳
Welcome to our Treehouse Daily newsletter (previously known as The Canopy Collective), where Treehouse brings you financial news and insights free daily! We believe you’ll find this helpful.
In case you have missed it, check out our latest insights piece 👇
Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- US home prices fell for the second straight month in a row; Microsoft and Alphabet stock slumped after-hours on poor earnings (more in Macro & TradFi)
- NEAR Protocol TVL almost halved after decommissioning of the USN stablecoin project (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- BTC Adjusted Percent Supply in Profit near 2018 lows (more in On-Chain)
- Intraday short liquidations most in 3 months (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC and ETH break above key resistance levels as BTC reclaims $20K and ETH retests $1.5K (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
GM! US home prices fell sharply on a monthly basis; the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index dropped 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis after slipping 0.5% in July. Elsewhere, the consumer confidence index fell to a three-month low of 102.5 in October from 107.8 in September. Earnings season is ramping up; Alphabet and Microsoft both fell more than 6.5% after-hours as the former missed on profit and revenue, while the latter reported slower-than-expected growth in some of its cloud business.
US equity indices ended the day higher with the S&P 500 up 1.6%, the NASDAQ up 2.3%, and the DJIA 1.1%. US10Y Treasury yields fell by 10 basis points to 4.103%, closing off the intraday lows of 4.05%. Dollar weakness was observed across the board with GBP leading the rally against the Greenback. Lastly, WTI Crude Oil continued to slide despite stabilizing on Saudi comment of tight inventories, falling 0.76% to $84.67 a barrel.
DeFi & CeFi
- NEAR Protocol TVL almost halved after announcing the removal of its stablecoin USN
- Sui Foundation launches developer grants program
- Bybit announces the launch of multi-chain web3 platform called Bybit Web3
- Sandbox airdrops 2.6M $SAND to LAND owners on Polygon network
- Multichain NFT platform NFTrade is live on Immutable X
- Gaming-focused blockchain Oasys to launch mainnet in 3 phases from now till the 22 Nov
Earlier today, NEAR Foundation announced the allocation of $40M for the $USN Protection Programme, which aims to keep $USN fully collateralized and protect $USN holders. DCB admitted that $USN began to face the risk of under collateralization in spring 2022, and the collateral gap has grown to around $21m as of now.
Oasys, a gaming-focused blockchain jointly launched by Japanese gaming company Bandai Namco Entertainment and Sega, will launch its mainnet in three distinct phases from October 25th to November 22nd. Earlier this year, Oasys raised USD20m in a private token sale led by Republic Capital, Jump Crypto, Crypto.com, Huobi, Kucoin, Gate.io, Bitbank and Mirana Ventures.
@Checkmatey has noted that after discounting BTC older than 7-years (Inactive Supply), the Percent Supply in Profit at $19,000 was actually around 33%. This figure is much lower than March 2020 (44%) and equally as bad as the 2018 lows, which can be a potential indicator that BTC is nearing a bottom.
Bitcoin hash price, a metric derived from dividing miner revenue by hash rate, has continued trending towards all time lows of $66,500 per Exahash. BTC miners are earning the smallest reward relative to hashpower applied in history indicating that BTC miners are currently underperforming BTC. Until a drawdown in hash rate occurs, mining operations continue to be placed under immense pressure, significantly increasing the probability of a miner capitulation.
- Funding rate turns positive for both BTC and ETH perps
- 30-day IV increases slightly for BTC to 57.8% and increases for ETH to 71.9%
- 30-day 25d put skew decreases in magnitude for BTC and for ETH to -5.4% and -0.2% respectively
For futures, total liquidations yesterday amounted to $806.28M, 87.4% were short liquidations, registering the largest short-squeeze in 3 months.. BTC and ETH futures OI are also up 7.26% and 9.06% respectively.
On the options front, for both BTC and ETH, Put-Call ratio has decreased to 0.65 and 0.53 respectively. Current dominant structures include the short strangle for BTC and bear call spreads for ETH. On the flow side, bullish flows are observed for both BTC and ETH with many near-dated calls being purchased according to Paradigm.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Looking at TA, BTC and ETH shot up 5.85% and 13.21% respectively last night during US trading hours. BTC broke above its $19,579 level and stopped short at $20.4K, a next level of resistance that has stopped rallies over the past month. The H4 RSI has broken above overbought levels, given that prices are still in a ranging market this oversold signal may cool off and see price turn around, especially if the buying pressure seen last night was a one off event.
Over to ETH, price broke above $1,364 and went as high $1.5K. $1.5K for now seems to be the psychological level to break while also being a level of support turn resistance back in September. The RSI is at extremely overbought levels, suggesting that the ETH market may be exuberant and could see further momentum to the upside should it manage to break above $1.5K.
Australia inflation races to 32-year high, sounds rate alarm
Cloud to PCs, Microsoft forecasts spook investors as economy bites
Alphabet’s miss fans inflation fears across digital advertising
Inflation worries hurt U.S. consumer confidence; house prices decelerating
China seeks to promote development of private businesses with more loans
Fed’s Bullard, Evans, show two paths to the same policy rate
Alphabet misses on earnings as YouTube shrinks; company will cut headcount growth by half in Q4.
Bloomberg’s Matt Levine Writes 40,000-Word Article on Crypto.
BNB Chain Introduces $10M Fund to Incentivize Project Growth on the Blockchain.
Polygon-Based DeFi Platform QuickSwap Closes Lending Service After Exploit.
MakerDAO community votes to approve custody of $1.6B in USDC with Coinbase.
Filecoin launches Web3 data-storage solution for carbon offsets.
Near Foundation sets up $40M fund to bail out USN investors in case of collapse.
Crypto data firm Amberdata snaps up analytics platform Genesis Volatility
Bitcoin climbs above $20,000, Coinbase shares soar more than 12% as financial markets rally
Treehouse Research 🌳