🌳 Janet Yellen addresses the global impact of China’s economy; Gensler uncertain on crypto-specific SEC rules after Ripple Labs case

18 Jul 2023, Tuesday

2:33 AM

🌳 Janet Yellen addresses the global impact of China’s economy; Gensler uncertain on crypto-specific SEC rules after Ripple Labs case

BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$30,167.57

$1,911.82

$4,550.25

(-0.14%)

 (-0.44%)

(+0.42%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM Treehouser 🌳

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June 2023 Market Recap

Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • Yellen addresses global impact of China's economy; EU-Mercosur deal nears despite conflicts (more in Macro & TradFi)
  • Gensler says it’s “too early” to discuss crypto rules following XRP ruling; Synthetix to launch perpetuals DEX Infinex (more in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Bitcoin shows signs of decreasing selling pressure amidst the narrow trading range (more in On-Chain)
  • IV continues to trade sideways as the market enters a quiet week without any significant catalyst or macro data (more in Crypto Derivatives)
  • Both BTC and ETH bounces back from the channel’s lower bound, making it the 7th time for ETH (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized the potential global repercussions, citing the dependency of numerous countries on China's robust economic performance to bolster their own growth. However, she dismissed the prospect of an imminent US recession. Additionally, Yellen hinted at the likelihood of imposing restrictions on US outbound investments to China, assuring that these measures would be "narrowly targeted" and predominantly focus on critical sectors such as semiconductors, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence.

The EU and the Mercosur bloc, comprising Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, are reportedly optimistic about finalizing a long-standing trade agreement by the end of this year, despite disagreements over the Ukraine conflict and environmental concerns. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the deal "within reach", as negotiations gain momentum under Spain's EU Council presidency. However, discord remains over additional environmental safeguards demanded by the EU, primarily from France, Ireland, and the Netherlands, whose agricultural industries risk facing increased competition from South America upon ratification. The rekindling of EU-Latin America relations could be instrumental in offsetting China's growing influence as South America's largest trading partner.

During Monday’s trading session, the S&P 500 rose by 0.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.93%. Microsoft experienced an uptick of 0.14% after committing to retain the 'Call of Duty' franchise on Sony's PlayStation console, facilitating its $69B purchase of Activision Blizzard. Meanwhile, Tesla's share value ascended by 3.20% following the initiation of Cybertruck production, ending two years of postponements.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Gensler uncertain if Ripple ruling will trigger more crypto regulations
  • Synthetix to launch perpetuals DEX Infinex, streamlining transactions
  • Binance completes integration of Lightning Network for Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals
  • zkSync to resume distribution of experimental NFT project LIBERTAS OMNIBUS
  • Binance introduces feature for multiple deposit addresses on one network
  • Celo proposes shift to Ethereum Layer2 network using OP Stack

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler stated that it is too early to determine if the agency will draft more crypto-specific rules following the recent split decision in the SEC's case against Ripple Labs. Regardless, Gensler acknowledged that the SEC has proposed rule changes relating to digital assets but did not provide specifics. He also highlighted the pushback from companies and crypto industry advocates against some of the proposed rules, particularly regarding the application of custodial rules to digital assets. Separately, Gensler expressed his view that decentralized finance is still quite centralized and emphasized the SEC's focus on protecting the investing public and market integrity.

Synthetix, a decentralized finance protocol, is set to launch Infinex, a new derivatives front-end exchange catering to both novice and experienced traders. Infinex aims to offer features similar to centralized exchanges (CEX), such as a noncustodial central limit order book. The upcoming exchange addresses existing issues with Synthetix's Kwenta platform, eliminating the need to bridge assets and incur wallet signature fees for each order or cancellation. By providing a noncustodial setup and a user-friendly interface, Infinex aims to rival centralized exchanges while mitigating counterparty risks. Last, the release of Infinex is expected to coincide with Synthetix's version three of its perpetual futures trading system.

On-Chain

Retail demand in the Bitcoin market appears lackluster despite the news of various institutional Bitcoin ETF filings, which have propelled the price of BTC from a low of $25K in mid-June to over $30K at present. According to @cryptoquant, there has been a notable surge in stablecoin spot exchange withdrawals in recent weeks, indicating profit-taking activities. However, it is noteworthy that there has not been a significant increase in stablecoin deposits to exchanges alongside these withdrawals, suggesting that retail investors are not hastily joining in to capitalize on narrative surrounding the Bitcoin ETF filings.

Despite Bitcoin reaching a temporary yearly price high of $31.7k, persistent selling pressure and profit-taking have kept the Bitcoin market confined within an exceptionally narrow trading range for the past four months. However, according to data from @cryptoquant, there are indications of decreasing selling pressure. Both the short-term SOPR and aSOPR metrics are testing the support level at 1, with values above 1 suggesting that more investors are selling at a profit. Currently, active on-chain participants are approaching their cost basis, a level that typically leads to reduced selling pressure in the market.

Crypto Derivatives

  • Funding rates remains positive for both BTC and ETH
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) fell to 42.68% and 42.92% for BTC and ETH respectively
  • 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH is at 1.70% and 0.38% respectively
  • The futures market witnessed $83M worth of liquidations on Monday with longs representing 71% of the total

Top 3 CEX USDT perp funding rate arbitrage based on the last 24-hour lookback:

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

36.52%

BNB

Bybit

Binance

23.54%

SOL

dYdX

Bybit

15.64%

DOGE

dYdX

Bybit

Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, DOGE vs USDT perps 

2) CEX observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & DYDX

@CexyArbBot allows you to customize CEX, 100+ pairs & lookback periods combo

BTC and ETH have continued to trade sideways, with the market lacking significant macro events or catalysts this week. Currently, IV levels for both BTC and ETH are below 40%, which is lower than the typically volatile nature of the crypto markets.

Meanwhile, the term structure for both BTC and ETH remains unchanged and in contango, except for the front-end of the curve, which has experienced a notable decrease in IV.

The skews (C-P) for both BTC and ETH have remained relatively unchanged. BTC calls are trading at a premium, indicating a call skew, while ETH puts are trading at a premium, reflecting contrasting market sentiments between the two assets.

Bullish trades were observed in both BTC and ETH according to @tradeparadigm. In the case of BTC, the prevailing patterns were the purchase of 695x 25-Aug-23 $34K Call options and 474x 25-Aug-23 $36K Call options. For ETH, there were 4,000x 29-Sep-23 $2.2K Call options bought and 3,000x 29-Sep-23 $2K/$2.5K Call Spread bought.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC's price has mostly traded within the rising channel, remaining near the lower border during the previous trading session, with the RSI relatively unchanged at 44.47. A brief fake-out occurred when the price broke below the lower bound. However, it quickly corrected and bounced back from the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands, which sits slightly above the 200-day SMA. Looking ahead, BTC may retest the upper bound around $31-31.5K.

Likewise, ETH has followed a similar narrative. Experiencing a further drop from yesterday's level, ETH has also tested the lower bound of its rising channel and pulled back, marking the 7th time the channel has been respected on the 4-hour chart, establishing it as a strong support zone. If the normal oscillation within the channel continues, the previous analysis holds true, indicating that ETH is likely to move towards the upper bound around $2.03K.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

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Treehouse Research 🌳