Investors Flock To Safe-Haven Assets Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

31 Jan 2023, Tuesday

3:24 AM

Investors Flock To Safe-Haven Assets Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$22,833.00

$1,571.20

$4,041.50

(-3.90%)

 (-4.60%)

(-0.91%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM Treehouser 🌳

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Treehouse’s 2022 Wrap-Up and 2023 Outlook

Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • Risk assets sold off as Fed meeting looms, Abu Dhabi’s royal family member backs under fire Adani Enterprise (more in Macro & TradFi)
  • Sudoswap launches $SUDO governance token; Floki Inu DAO to burn tokens worth $102M (more in DeFi & CeFi)
  • BTC sees 2.4x more transactions on profit-making positions as compared to losses (more in On-Chain)
  • BTC and ETH term structure (more in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC falls to resistance-turned-support level at 22.8K, suffering its biggest drop since mid-Dec (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Taiwan managed to largely hold onto post-CNY gains in the first trading session since Jan 18, while China large caps dropped after opening higher with A50 index down 2.33% at close. India’s Gautam Adani found backing from the Middle East amid the short-selling attack by Hindenburg Research; a holding company controlled by a member of Abu Dhabi’s royal family will invest in a share offering by Adani Enterprises. US President Joe Biden may completely sever Huawei’s chip supply from US producers as the government intensifies a crackdown on the Chinese hardware tech sector.

US stocks and bonds both sold off while the dollar rallied. NASDAQ decreased 1.89%, SPX 1.06% and DOW 0.7% as traders who rode the past month’s swift rally take profit ahead of Wed’s FOMC meeting. US Treasuries sold off across the curve but remained contained in recent ranges so far; 10-year yields printed 4bps wider to 3.54%. Both oil indices sold off.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Mastercard partners with Binance to launch a prepaid crypto card in Brazil
  • Alameda behind last year's $stETH depeg
  • Premier League partners with Sorare to launch digital player cards and fantasy competitions
  • Floki Inu DAO approves plan to burn tokens worth $102M
  • YGG Japan completes a private fundraising round of $2.95M
  • Perpetual DEX Firefly now called Bluefin
  • Deposits from Lyra now live on Arbitrum
  • Sudoswap launches governance token $SUDO

The Floki DAO has approved a proposal to burn 4.97T $FLOKI tokens on the Floki main bridge and cut the Floki transaction tax to 0.3%. The proposal was approved by a vote of 99.97% in support of burning the bridge tokens. The 4.97T $FLOKI tokens being burned were valued at $102M after the DAO voting concluded and will be burnt by 8 PM UTC on February 9, 2023. The Floki transaction tax will be reduced to 0.3% on February 3, 2023, at 8:00 PM UTC.

NFT trading protocol sudoswap has launched its governance tokens $SUDO where $XMON holders, as well as early sudoAMM LPs and 0xmons NFT holders, will receive $SUDO airdrop. $SUDO will govern the sudoAMM protocol using on-chain OpenZeppelin Governor module. A minimum of 300K $SUDO is needed to create on-chain proposals.

On-Chain

For on-chain data, BTC saw its largest P&L transaction ratio since Feb 2021 where over 2.4x as many profit-taking transactions were taking place as compared to the loss-making ones.

Meanwhile, the net volume of BTC from wallets to exchanges has been increasing since January 22. Furthermore, the volume of whale deposits to exchange far exceeds the volume of whale withdrawals which is a clear indication of near-term profit taking.

Crypto Derivatives

  • BTC and ETH funding rates remain positive
  • 30-day ATM IV fell for both BTC & ETH to 53.1% and 61.8% respectively
  • 30-day 25d call skew fell for both BTC & ETH to -0.1% and -2.4% respectively

For futures, total liquidations in the past 24H amounted to $160.91M, majority coming from longs at $141.55M.

On the options front, near-dated IV fell while longer-dated IV remained largely unchanged for both BTC & ETH.Term structures flatten but remain in backwardation. The variance risk premium for BTC and ETH fell to 12.3% and 6.6% respectively, primarily due to the fall in the near-dated IV. RV for both BTC & ETH slightly edged up to 46.7 & 58.5 respectively.

On the flow front, most of the volume continues to come from near-dated options expiring on 3 Feb. On the BTC side, the most popular strategy seemed to be bear put spread as traders look to hedge their exposure ahead of key events this week.

Lastly, the VIX rallied 7.73% to 19.94.

Crypto Technical Analysis

For TA, BTC dropped by 3.85% overnight to $22.8K, suffering its biggest single-day loss since mid-Dec. Price rejected the $24K resistance level as bulls failed to build momentum throughout the day. Currently, the $22.8K level could act as a resistance-turned-support for price. If risk aversion remains, BTC could fall further to the $21K support. On the other hand, if price rebounds off its current support, the next resistance zone to look at is the $24.5K-25.2K range.

As for ETH, it was down 4.8% in the past 24 hours to $1.56K. On the daily, ETH is currently trading near its 20-day EMA line at $1.57K. If bulls are able to regain control, price could look to test the $1.8K resistance if it breaks the $1.68K level. However, if price is unable to hold at its 20-day EMA, the 50-day EMA line at $1.37K could be the next level of major support.

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Yours sincerely,
Treehouse Research 🌳