S&P 500 Futures
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Stocks in consolidation mode; Hang Seng Tech index looks for next direction after more than 50% rally from the bottom (more in Macro & TradFi)
- $APE staking is now live; Maple Finance suffers default (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- Average % of supply held on exchanges of the top stablecoins fell over the past 4 months though it remains higher than 2021 bull-run (more in On-Chain)
- Options flows reflect market uncertainty as traders pile into spreads (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC and ETH reject key resistance levels and remain range-bound (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
Strong Nov US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (56.5 actual vs 53.3 consensus) revived market’s fear of restrictive Fed, leaving this week’s upcoming PPI data on Friday another potential market mover. Hong Kong stock futures are in the red before cash markets open as investors look for clues on the next direction after an almost 10% rally in HSTECH index yesterday; the tech-heavy index had rallied 55% since low at end of Oct, while the broader HSI index rebounded 32% during same time period.
US stocks slipped for the third day. NASDAQ dropped 1.39%, S&P 1.47% and DOW 1.11%. Strong economic data was blamed for the drop. The greenback rallied against major currencies and US Treasury bond yields jumped across the curve with 10-year benchmark adding 7bps. Oil prices dumped with global risk assets. The VIX, which we have highlighted to have touched the range-bottom level of 20, bounced strongly higher with equity downside.
DeFi & CeFi
- Horizen Labs launches $APE staking
- Lens Protocol acquires NFT mobile game Sonar
- Orthogonal Trading defaults on its Maple Finance’s loans
- Nexo announces plan to launch non-custodial wallet
- USDC issuer Circle terminates plan to go public
- Lending Protocol Nostra announce Alpha version live on StarkNet mainnet
- Coca-Cola releases a collection of 10,000 World Cup NFTs
- Torah Finance to airdrop $TRH to $UNI and $CRV holders
- Uniswap community’s proposal on Fee Switch to undergo voting in 14 days
Horizen Labs announced that $APE staking system used by ApeCoin DAO is now live. The pre-commitment period has officially started and by 12th Dec, the rewards will begin to accrue.
Orthogonal Trading has defaulted on eight loans worth $36 million on credit protocol Maple Finance. The defaulted loans contribute to 30% of the platform's active loans. $31 million comes from the M11 USDC pool while the remaining $5 million is from the M11 WETH pool. Maple Finance has since severed ties with the trading firm and expects to recover at least $2.5 million to pay off the creditors.
Elsewhere, Coca-cola has partnered with Crypto.com to release a collection of 10,000 World Cup NFTs. These NFTs will be based on the players' heatmap in the FIFA World Cup matches. The development of the NFTs will be done on GMUNK and listed on Crypto.com NFT platform.
For on-chain, the Relative Transfer Volume Breakdown for BTC shows that the dominance of smaller-sized transactions (up to $100k) has increased by 35% since July 2022 as transaction counts show an uptick while transfer volume dips.
Elsewhere, the top 4 stablecoins’ average % of supply held on exchanges has fallen for the past four months but remains higher than the 2021 bull run. It fell from 32.5% to 28.4% since early August, above the 2021 range of 24%-26%.
- Funding rate remains positive on BTC and ETH
- 30-day IV fell for BTC to 47.18%, while diving to 67.94% for ETH
- 30-day 25d put skew eased for BTC and ETH to -8.73 % and -8.88% respectively.
For futures, total liquidations yesterday amounted to $68.40M, with 52.56% of that being long liquidations.
On the options front, IV fell across the board for BTC and ETH as spot retraced. Term structures are still in contango, while ETH remains flat for the medium to long-term maturities. Meanwhile, the VRP remains highly positive with +16.6% on BTC and +21.4% on ETH.
Lastly, on the flow side, the dominant strategies in the past 24 hours for BTC have been the bull call spread and the bull put spread, while for ETH, the dominant strategies were the bear call spread and the short strangle. These flows indicate that traders are not too confident on placing any directional bets yet, and prefer to limit risk in the meantime.
Lastly, the VIX has rebounded slightly and is now trading at 20.30.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Looking at TA, BTC attempted to move higher to break above $17.5K, but was fiercely rejected before finding support at $16.9K. RSI on the H4 has formed a bearish divergence as it formed a lower high during the attempt to break higher. For now, price action looks to continue to trend sideways, with limited downside likely to the $16.5K level in the near term this week, while an attempt to $17.5K looks to be still on the table.
ETH also attempted a breakout but failed to reclaim $1.3K, finding support at the $1.25K level. Now rangebound and with a falling RSI on the H4, momentum seems to have stalled for ETH. In the near term, price action looks limited within the range of $1.3K and $1.23K levels.
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Dollar gains broadly as upbeat U.S. data muddles Fed rate hike views
UK consumer spending fails to keep pace with inflation: surveys
Credit Suisse business is stable, chairman tells broadcaster SRF
Wall St slides as services data spooks investors about Fed rate hikes
Bankman-Fried says he will testify before U.S. House committee
Tesla China denies media reports of output cut at Shanghai plant
FX swap debt a $80 trillion 'blind spot' global regulator says
China's trade likely shrank further in Nov as external, local demand weakened
Japan's service-sector activity growth hits 3-month low -PMI
Morgan Stanley turns bullish on China stocks, giving them serious upside potential.
DeFi Risk-Sharing Protocol Nexus Expects Loss on Maple Credit Pool Investment as FTX Contagion Widens.
Built With Bitcoin Foundation Opens New Technology Center in Ghana.
Bitcoin Miner Riot Switches Mining Pool After Falling Short in November.
Kentucky Investigating 2 Proposed Contracts That Would Give Discounted Electricity to Crypto Miners.
Bankman-Fried Is a ‘Master of Deflection,’ Securities Lawyer Says.
Aave’s Social Media Protocol Lens Acquires NFT Mobile Game Sonar.
Waves Blockchain Founder Explores New DAO Model to Improve Crypto Governance.
Maple Finance cuts ties with Orthogonal Trading over alleged misrepresentation of finances.
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