S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Google preliminarily settles its 2020 privacy lawsuit under undisclosed terms; Global crude oil prices set to see the largest annual decline since 2020 (More in Macro & TradFi)
- Federal judged ruled in favor of SEC over Do Kwon on offering and selling unregistered securities; ARK Invest sells the remaining GBTC holdings to switch into BITO (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- Whale maneuvers SOL for profit; A trader's precise LINK buys correlate with price surge (More in On-Chain)
- BTC term structure shows backwardation at the 14-day expiry; skew trends show medium-term bullish investor sentiment. (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- Both BTC and ETH experienced slight retracements with ETH failing to confirm a break above its yearly high (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
Google has reached a preliminary settlement in a class-action lawsuit that accused the company of secretly tracking the internet activity of users who believed they were browsing privately. The lawsuit, filed in 2020, sought at least $5 billion in damages and claimed that Google's analytics, cookies, and apps allowed it to track users even when they used the "Incognito" mode on Google Chrome or other browsers' "private" browsing mode. The settlement terms were not disclosed, but a formal settlement is expected to be presented for court approval by February 24, 2024. The lawsuit covered millions of Google users since June 1, 2016.
Meanwhile, the global crude oil prices are set for their largest annual decline since 2020, despite ongoing conflicts and production cuts by OPEC+. West Texas Intermediate is trading above $72 per barrel but is experiencing weekly, monthly, and quarterly losses. The US crude marker has dropped approximately 10% this year, with the global benchmark Brent declining about 9%. Additionally, official US data revealed an increase in crude oil stockpiles, contributing to the 11th consecutive weekly expansion at the key Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub. Despite geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Hamas war, and OPEC+ cuts, increased production from non-OPEC nations and worries about slowing demand growth have led to a downward trend in crude futures. Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, marked by vessel attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen, are impacting trade routes, with half of the container-ship fleet avoiding the key waterway and crude tankers being rerouted, increasing costs.
Lastly, on the penultimate trading day of 2023, the S&P 500 closed nominally higher, finishing 0.3% below its record closing high from January 2022. The Dow achieved its second consecutive record-high closing level, while the Nasdaq closed slightly lower. Among sectors, utilities saw the largest gain, while energy shares declined. U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies, including Alibaba, PDD Holdings, and JD.Com, advanced. CytoSorbents slid 33.4% after a device aimed at reducing bleeding during surgery failed to meet its study goal. Boeing dipped 0.7% due to concerns about a possible loose bolt in the rudder control system of newer 737 MAX airplanes.
DeFi & CeFi
- US federal judge favors SEC over Terraform Labs and Do Kwon over the LUNA case
- ARK Invest dumps the remaining GBTC for Bitcoin futures ETF BITO
- Canadian CEX Catalyx halts withdrawals, citing “security breach”
- PancakeSwap proposes to reduce CAKE supply by 300 million
- FTX debtors proposes $16,871 BTC price and $1,258 ETH price for creditor claims
- Binance marks a record year of 40 million new users in 2023
In a recent ruling, a U.S. federal judge has granted summary judgment in favor of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the case against Terraform Labs and its former CEO, Do Kwon. The SEC alleged that Terraform Labs and Kwon offered and sold LUNA and MIR unregistered securities. The court agreed that LUNA satisfied the Howey test, concluding that investors were led to expect profits solely from the efforts of Terraform and Kwon. However, the court granted summary judgment for the defendants regarding the alleged unregistered offer and sale of security-based swaps. The fraud claims in the case will be decided in a jury trial starting in January 2024.
In other news, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has reportedly sold its entire remaining Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) holdings worth $200 million and invested around $100 million in the Bitcoin Futures ETF BITO. Analysts see this move as a temporary shift, as ARK Invest looks for a more liquidity-rich portfolio. With this latest investment, ARK becomes the second-largest holder of Bito. The asset management firm began offloading GBTC shares in October, with previous sales in December. This move coincides with heightened speculation about the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, with ETF analysts giving a 99% chance of approval before the January 10, 2024 deadline.
According to @lookonchain, a whale's recent deposit of 303,756 SOL to Binance, valued at approximately $32.8 million, hints at a potential profit-taking strategy. This follows the whale's withdrawal of 423,754 SOL, worth $28.18 million at $66.5 each, from Binance over the previous month. Despite these significant transactions, the whale maintains a staked position of 119,998 SOL, currently valued at $12.44 million, with profits exceeding $17 million. Additionally, this investor made a notable 115% gain on a previous trade, withdrawing 19,704 SOL at $20 from Binance and redepositing at $43 on November 8, netting $453K.
Meanwhile, an analysis by Spotonchain detailed the trading activity of a savvy investor who realized a profit of $4.5 million. This investor, characterized by their calculated approach, has recently reinvested in the cryptocurrency market, purchasing 345,488 LINK tokens from Binance at an average price of $16.49 in just under half a day. This latest accumulation is built on the back of a hefty $4.5 million profit, a culmination of trading 641,386 LINK over several months. Such moves highlight the trader's adept market timing. The investor's actions coincided with a notable 11.6% surge in LINK's price over the last 24 hours, suggesting a correlation between savvy individual trading strategies and broader market trends.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained relatively unchanged at 63.30% and 66.10% respectively.
- The futures market witnessed $194.20M liquidations, with longs representing 76.28%.
- The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC rose to 2.24% while ETH maintained at 5.45%.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
The 30-day implied volatility (IV) for BTC has risen to 61.80%, signaling market anticipation of increased medium-term price fluctuations. Concurrently, the 7-day IV has also fallen to 46.65% after sidelining for the past days. The growing disparity between medium and short-term volatility expectations highlights investor uncertainty and strategic positioning ahead of key regulatory decisions. This can be attributed to market anticipation surrounding the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in January.
The Bitcoin's Implied Volatility (IV) term structure, particularly the backwardation starting at the 14-day mark, highlights the market's expectation of increased volatility. There have been minimal changes across the curve from yesterday. This trend is largely attributed to the anticipation of key events, such as the possible approval of a Bitcoin ETF. This development indicates that traders are actively positioning themselves in response to these events, demonstrating acute awareness of how regulatory changes could influence Bitcoin's price movements.
The 25-delta 30-day call-put skew for Bitcoin has increased to 2.24%, and similarly, the 7-day skew has maintained at 0.54%. This movement suggests a growing bullish sentiment among investors in the medium term of 30 days. This trend signifies a shift in market sentiment towards a more balanced perspective regarding potential movements in Bitcoin's price over the short to medium term.
During @Paradigm’s Asia / Europe Session Hours, highlighted option flows this week, noted a keen interest in bullish strategies. BTC saw the purchase of 250x 29-Dec-23 45k Call Calendar, and 250x 29-Dec-23 44k/45k Call Spreads, reflecting an anticipation of upside potential. Meanwhile, in the ETH space, traders secured 43500x 26-Jan-24 2400/2900 Call Spreads, and 18500x 29-Dec-23 2500 Calls, suggesting a similar optimism for upward price movements.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Onto technical analysis, the scenario outlined in yesterday's analysis persists as BTC's price movements continue to align with the previously identified triangle pattern. Currently experiencing a modest retracement, BTC hovers around the $42.3K mark, in proximity to the lower boundary of the triangle. In the last 24 hours, the established resistance and support levels have remained intact. The upper boundary at $44.2K functions as immediate resistance, while the previously scrutinized $40K-$40.5K range serves as immediate support, signifying both the neckline of the invalidated double-top pattern and a crucial psychological support zone.
On the flip side, ETH has also undergone a retracement subsequent to reaching its yearly high. Notably, the price failed to make a definitive break above the prior resistance and is now approaching the previously analyzed support levels. In this situation, it is anticipated that the price will test support at the lower trendline, shaped by recent local higher lows, situated around $2.3K. A further potential descent towards the support zone near $2.1K is envisaged, aligning with previous highs established since late April.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳