S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
GM Treehouser 🌳
Welcome to our Treehouse Daily newsletter, where Treehouse brings you financial news and insights free daily! We believe you’ll find this helpful.
Also, in case you have missed it, check out our latest research piece 👇
You can also access our research articles on the Bloomberg Terminal with the command “NH TRH < GO >"!
Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- US jobless claims drop, signaling economic shift; Israel-Hamas reach pivotal hostage deal (More in Macro & TradFi)
- KyberSwap DEX loses $47M in possible exploit; HTX, Heco Chain exploited for $100M in suspicious transfers (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- FTX's FTT token rallies amid major wallet accumulations; Dogecoin sees surge in activity from dormant wallets and new mega-wallet creations (More in On-Chain)
- BTC volatility stabilizes; Market sentiment shifts with Binance resolution, skew increases (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC 4-Hour analysis indicates bullish reversal; ETH trends upward with strong RSI support (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
US weekly jobless claims have declined more than anticipated, indicating a gradual slowing in the labor market as increased interest rates temper economic demand. This drop, evident in both initial and continuing unemployment claims, suggests challenges in adjusting for seasonal fluctuations. Despite this decline, the labor market remains robust, enough to deter further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, but not weak enough to consider rate cuts soon. This shift aligns with the Fed's assessment of easing labor market conditions, as noted in their recent meeting minutes. Concurrently, business spending on equipment shows signs of struggle, failing to recover in the early fourth quarter, hinting at a broader economic slowdown. This slowdown is reflected in the cautious anticipation of a potential rate cut by 2024, amidst mixed signals from various inflation expectation surveys and steady, though moderating, labor market indicators.
Elsewhere, Israel-Hamas hostage deal has been confirmed, with Israel agreeing to release at least 50 civilian hostages held in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a temporary ceasefire. This intricate agreement, facilitated by Qatar and involving U.S. and Israeli intelligence, also involves a significant humanitarian aid influx into Gaza, including fuel, enabling the entry of 200 aid trucks daily. The deal, which is subject to public appeal in Israel, marks a notable pause in hostilities and is seen as a potential precursor to further negotiations aimed at securing the release of additional hostages and extending the ceasefire. This development is a critical step in de-escalating tensions and addressing the catastrophic humanitarian conditions in Gaza, despite the underlying complexities and the political sensitivity surrounding the issue in Israel.
Yesterday, US stocks experienced a significant uptick, with the Nasdaq Composite, DJIA, and S&P 500 climbing 0.43%, 0.53%, and 0.41%, respectively, as the November market rally expanded into the Thanksgiving period. Despite outperforming expectations, Nvidia saw a 2.46% decline, attributing potential sales decreases in China to US export restrictions. Contrarily, Microsoft's shares rose by 1.28% following the announcement of Sam Altman's return to OpenAI. In the UK, the Treasury announced a less drastic reduction in its bond sales target for the year, central to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement, which includes a £20bn tax cut, impacting the recent uptrend in the gilt market. Additionally, the market is anticipating the release of Singapore's CPI data at 13:00 SGT today.
DeFi & CeFi
- KyberSwap DEX loses $47M in possible exploit
- HTX, Heco Chain exploited for $100M in suspicious transfers
- KPMG Canada teams up with Chainalysis to fight crypto frauds and exploits
- Binance processes nearly $1B in net outflows after CZ’s resignation
- Genesis sues Gemini to recover ‘preferential transfers’ worth $689M
- Court denies Sam Bankman-Fried’s latest request for release
- Mt. Gox to start repaying creditors in cash ‘shortly’ this year
KyberSwap, a decentralized exchange protocol, has reportedly faced an exploit resulting in a $47M loss from its Elastic Pools liquidity solution. The unanticipated movement of funds from the protocol's wallets to a single account was first detected by Twitter user Spreek. The pilfered funds comprised different Ether-based tokens, including wrapped tokens, liquid staking tokens, Arbitrum (ARB), and stablecoins. The total value locked in the protocol remains unaffected at $72M, as indicated by pseudonymous DefiLlama employee 0xngmi. The exploit seems to involve flash loans and mathematical or rounding issues, leading to a significant drop in the price of Kyber Network Crystal (KNC). KyberSwap has warned users of the security incident, advising prompt fund withdrawals and committing to ongoing updates. A message from the attacker in a transaction hinted at forthcoming negotiations.
In similar news, crypto exchange HTX and blockchain protocol Heco Chain were exploited, resulting in a combined loss of $97M in various tokens, confirmed by investor Justin Sun in a post. Sun assured full reimbursement for affected losses and temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals while ensuring the security of remaining funds. Blockchain security firm Cyvers highlighted suspicious transfers totaling $85M, attributing the attack to a suspected private key leak that enabled access to the Heco bridge. Heco Chain, maintained by HTX, operates independently.
In recent developments reported by @santiment, the native token of FTX, FTT, has witnessed a notable second rally, further buoyed by recent developments involving Binance. This surge in FTT’s value is closely linked to the accumulation activities of the 10 largest wallets, which have collectively added 2.91M FTT, which is worth $12.8M to their holdings over 19 days. This trend reflects growing confidence in the FTT token and underscores the influence of major stakeholders in shaping market dynamics, especially in the wake of significant industry news.
On the other hand, @Santiment latest data points to a dynamic shift in the Dogecoin market, with a marked movement of funds from dormant DOGE wallets, the largest since June, hinting at a possible upcoming price trend reversal. Additionally, the Dogecoin network has established 121 new mega-wallets, each with over a million DOGE, all within the past month. This significant influx of ‘big money’ interest and the awakening of long-inactive coins signals a heightened market activity that could forecast pivotal movements in Dogecoin’s valuation.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH rose slightly to 55.29% and 54.76%, respectively.
- The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH rose to 6.79% and 4.68%, respectively.
- The futures market witnessed $102.59M liquidations since Friday, with shorts representing 76.58% of the total.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
In the last 24 hours, both BTC's 7-day and 30-day implied volatilities have remained relatively unchanged at 47.01% and 51.66%, respectively, further solidifying the market's expectation of stability in BTC's short-term future.
Meanwhile, BTC's term structure has continued to be in contango. IV has generally remained unchanged as well.
In the past 24 hours, the market has observed a substantial alteration in the 25-delta call-put skew. Notably, the 7-day skew has increased markedly, from 0.81% to 6.19%. Similarly, the 30-day skew has also increased, settling at 6.78%. The shift in market sentiment might be attributed to the resolution of the Binance situation through a settlement, coupled with the market's realization that, unlike FTX, Binance did not experience a significant outflow of funds when its liquidity issues first came to light.
Yesterday, during @Paradigm's Asia / Europe Session Hours, highlighted option flows this week emphasized downside coverage with strategic put purchases and structured positions. Key BTC trades encompassed the procurement of 550x 29-Mar-24 45K Calls, and a notable 175x 24-Nov-23 37.25/40K Call Calendar. For ETH, significant movements were seen with the sale of 5000x 26-Jan-24 2.4K Calls and purchase of 4650x 1-Dec-23 2.15K Calls.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Transitioning to today’s BTC technical analysis on the 4-hour chart, the RSI has notably recovered to 57.79 from the previous low of 38.93, indicating a momentum shift. Price action reflects this optimism, having rebounded from the lower orange trendline of the ascending wedge and breaking above both the 50 SMA and 100 SMA—a bullish signal. The formation of a bullish wedge pattern suggests that a breakout above its upper boundary could lead to a 4% to 5% rise, targeting the resistance zone at $39.4K to $40K. Should this resistance give way and become support, an additional rally could see a 5% to 6% increase towards the $41.7K to $42.3K region. On the flip side, a reversal of this trend could see Bitcoin retracting towards the $30K to $31K support area, echoing the previous analysis' cautionary stance on potential bearish patterns. The current market dynamics, characterized by the recovery to the upper bounds of the ascending wedge, lend strength to a bullish outlook, yet the possibility of a downturn remains if the upward trend fails to be sustained.
Moving on to ETH 4-hourly technical analysis, the chart conveys a compelling narrative of bullish progression. ETH has successfully breached the upper orange trend line and is now testing the bullish blue trend line, indicating potential for continued upward momentum. If the bull trend maintains its course, we're looking at an imminent rise of 3% to 4%, with price targets hovering around the $2.12K to $2.16K levels. Should ETH push past these levels, the ascent may extend further, with an aggressive 6% to 8% gain toward the $2.28K to $2.32K resistance zone. The RSI, currently at a healthy 62.46, reinforces this optimistic scenario, reflecting a momentum recovery from yesterday's 43.60. However, it's crucial to acknowledge the volatility inherent in the market; a pullback could trigger a retreat to the $1.88K support area, translating into a 7% to 9% drop. Therefore, while the RSI and current trend line break suggest a bullish tilt, monitoring these levels closely is essential as they dictate ETH’s short-term price trajectory.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳