S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
GM Treehouser 🌳
Welcome to our Treehouse Daily newsletter, where Treehouse brings you financial news and insights free daily! We believe you’ll find this helpful.
Also, in case you have missed it, check out our latest research piece 👇
You can also access our research articles on the Bloomberg Terminal with the command “NH TRH < GO >"!
Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Citi Group CEO Jane Fraser reportedly considering a more than 10% job cut; OpenAI announces feature for custom ChatGPT (More in Macro & TradFi)
- FTX relaunch effort includes Celsius winner Proof Group; ApeFest attendees report severe eye burn (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- XRP Ledger value peaks; Whale buys $4.99M TRB at one-year high (More in On-Chain)
- A decline in Bitcoin's short-term Implied Volatility maintains contango; Ethereum skew increase indicates rising short-term optimism (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC shows bullish signs at $34.9K; ETH trades above support, eyes $1.95K (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
Citigroup's CEO Jane Fraser is reportedly considering significant job cuts of at least 10% in various business areas as part of her corporate overhaul initiative, codenamed "Project Bora Bora." Fraser has been facing mounting pressure to address Citigroup's persistent challenges and underperformance. If she proceeds with such cuts, it would mark one of the deepest rounds of layoffs on Wall Street in recent years. Citigroup's expenses and headcount have grown, leaving it with the largest workforce among U.S. banks, except for JPMorgan. Fraser aims to boost returns and improve the bank's stock performance by increasing efficiency and cutting costs, especially amid a slowing U.S. economy. Details of Fraser's plan and its financial impact are expected in January.
Meanwhile, OpenAI is now allowing users to create custom versions of ChatGPT, named GPTs, without the need for coding, offering the flexibility to build AI models tailored to specific personal or professional tasks. OpenAI will also launch a store for users to access customized GPTs from others, akin to app stores. The announcement came during OpenAI's inaugural developer conference, where the company introduced GPT-4 Turbo, a more powerful and faster version of its language model. ChatGPT, which has gained widespread usage, now faces competition from various AI startups and tech giants. The move aims to strengthen OpenAI's position in the market.
On November 6, 2023, U.S. stock markets closed with slight gains. Investors were awaiting guidance from Federal Reserve policymakers later in the week regarding the central bank's policy path, as well as anticipating a significant amount of bond supply entering the market. The S&P 500 rose 0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.10%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.30%. This followed a substantial weekly gain, driven by a weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls report, which led to expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in the coming year.
DeFi & CeFi
- FTX relaunch effort includes Celsius winner Proof Group
- ApeFest attendees report severe eye burn
- Kraken seeks a partner to help build its Layer 2 blockchain network
- Indian police arrest 8 more in $300M crypto scam
- FTX wants to sell $744M worth of Grayscale, Bitwise assets
- Hong Kong now considering spot crypto ETFs for retail investors
- Smart contract platform Llama raises $6M from investors including Polygon, Aave founders
Proof Group, a Silicon Valley investment firm and part of the Fahrenheit consortium, is among the potential bidders looking to relaunch FTX. The bankruptcy process for FTX involves multiple parties, with potential options including a restart of the exchange, selling the entire exchange and customer list, or bringing in a partner. Firms like Figure and Tribe Capital have also shown interest in reviving FTX, but restarting a crypto exchange involves dealing with claims, token lockups, and compliance complexities, making the process challenging. With all interested parties, a finalized decision is expected by mid-December.
In other news, attendees of the ApeFest event hosted by the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) experienced medical issues, including blurred vision and burning eyes, with a possible cause being exposure to ultraviolet (UV) light from lasers and strobe lights. On its official Twitter account, BAYC said “much less than 1% of those attending and working the event had these symptoms”, prompting frustration from attendees who saw BAYC downplaying the issue. One person reportedly suffered from photokeratitis, a condition resulting from UV light exposure, for more than 30 hours after the event. The incident occurred in Hong Kong, and impacted the floor price of Bored Ape NFTs from 32 ETH to 28.4 ETH.
Moving on to on-chain, XRP has recently achieved a significant milestone, with its market value surpassing the $0.68 threshold for the first time since August 2nd. In a noteworthy performance over the past week, XRP appreciated more than 23% in value relative to Bitcoin. Santiment reveals that wallet addresses holding between 100,000 to 1 billion XRP are now at their highest ownership levels of the year. The increasing wallets holding significant amounts of XRP signal a growing confidence among substantial stakeholders, potentially indicating a bullish outlook for the asset.
In other news, a whale was identified by @spotonchain to have strategically acquired 42,742 TRB tokens for $4.99M from Binance, averaging $116.8 per token. This transaction aligns with TRB's price surge to a one-year high of $125, reflecting a calculated move that coincides with peak market valuation. The acquisition, marked by an immediate unrealized gain of 3.96% or $198.1K, signals the investor's confidence in TRB's potential and may influence market sentiment, highlighting the importance of whale movements as indicators of asset prospects.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH dropped to 57.36% and 56.97%, respectively.
- 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC fell to 6.63% while 25-delta skew (C-P) for ETH 7 days rose to 9.78%.
- The futures market witnessed $92.98M liquidations since yesterday, with shorts representing 53.75% of the total.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
The 7-day implied volatility for Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a notable decrease, dropping from 52.10% to 46.60%, while the 30-day implied volatility has also experienced a slight reduction to 55.61%. The reduced short-term volatility may reflect a calming of immediate market concerns.
Regarding the term structures, BTC has remained in the contango state with its implied volatility (IV) for short-dated options declining from the previous day. ETH, on the other hand, has experienced a similar trajectory with a marked decrease in IV for its short-dated options, tumbling from 63.15% to 45.8%. This highlights a clear divergence moving from the short-dated to the mid-tenor options, which still preserve a contango state. Notably, the pattern shifts for ETH options with longer maturities, as contracts expiring 143 days onwards have transitioned into backwardation state, suggesting a market consensus for a decline in Ethereum's future volatility as these longer-term contracts mature.
The 25-delta 30-day call-put skew for BTC has seen a decrease over seven days, dipping from 7.25% to 6.63%, signaling a calming market and a reduction in bullish sentiment among traders for the week. Despite this, the 30-day skew for BTC has held steady, suggesting consistent short-to-medium term expectations. On the other hand, ETH 7-day skew has witnessed a significant climb, escalating rapidly from 8.57% to 9.78%. This suggests an increased confidence in short-term price gains for ETH, indicating a shift in trader preference towards more immediate call options and reflecting a heightened anticipation for upward movement in ETH value in comparison to BTC.
On @Paradigm, the top BTC options trades indicate a bearish outlook, with traders selling large volumes of December 29, 2023, calls at strike prices of $38,000 and $40,000. For ETH, there is a mix of sentiment: a bearish stance with 12,750 calls sold for November 17, 2023, at a $1,900 strike, versus a cautiously optimistic position with a 10,000 contract call spread bought for March 29, 2024, between $2,000 and $2,800 strikes. And a nuanced view on ETH, anticipating a cap at $1,900 in the short term but potential growth within a defined range by Spring 2024.
Crypto Technical Analysis
On the daily charts, BTC is maintaining its position at 34.9K, within an ascending channel, signaling a potential bullish continuation if the pattern holds true. Notably, BTC has successfully breached its bull market support band, indicated by the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 21-week EMA poised to cross above the 20-week SMA, an event that traders often interpreted as favorable for bulls. Should Bitcoin manage to sustain a breakout above this level, the next critical zone of support or resistance is situated around the $38K mark, representing a rise of approximately 8.99% from the current levels. On the flip side, the immediate support level stands firm at the $32.3K area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is currently at 75.28, indicating a strong uptrend momentum, bordering on overbought territory, which suggests traders should watch for potential pullbacks or consolidations in the near term.
On the other hand, ETH is currently trading at 1.85K on the daily charts, above its bull market support band, exhibiting consolidation within an ascending wedge pattern. The price action indicates a potential resistance encounter, which, if surpassed, could pave the way for further upward momentum. The immediate resistance level is likely to be at around $1.95K, representing a potential increase of approximately 2.96% from the current price point. Conversely, should the price breach the pattern to the downside, the next notable support is anchored at the bull market support band, specifically around the $1.75K mark, which is the convergence zone of the Bull Market Support Band. The RSI is currently positioned at 72.11, typically considered overbought, and indicates a strong upward momentum in recent price movements. Traders should monitor these levels closely as they could signify pivotal turning points in the short-term market trajectory for ETH.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳