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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- President Xi heads for the APEC Summit to meet top US business executives; WeWork filed for bankruptcy two years after its IPO (More in Macro & TradFi)
- Coinbase adds 4 national security experts to its Global Advisory Council; USDC stablecoin issuer Circle considers 2024 IPO (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- Bitcoin HODLing shows market maturity; Tellor surges with key stakeholder accumulation (More in On-Chain)
- Bitcoin Implied Volatility suggests short-term uncertainty; Options skew highlights divergent sentiment for BTC and ETH (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC shows resilience at $35.6K; ETH follows an ascending wedge near $1.89K (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to attend a dinner with top U.S. business executives during his visit to San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Hundreds of attendees are expected at the dinner, including CEOs of major U.S. companies. This event comes as the U.S. and China have been working to stabilize their relations this year, with officials from both nations paving the way for an expected meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit. Xi's visit aims to reassure foreign investors amid increasing concerns about doing business in China due to various challenges. A CEO summit featuring prominent business leaders is also scheduled before the APEC leaders' meeting. China has yet to officially announce Xi's attendance at APEC, but the White House has confirmed the meeting of the two world leaders.
Meanwhile, WeWork, a company once valued at $47 billion that aimed to revolutionize workspaces into creative and communal environments, filed for bankruptcy just two years after its tumultuous attempt to go public. The company, which ballooned rapidly by leasing office spaces worldwide, struggled with corporate governance issues and erratic behavior by its co-founder, Adam Neumann. The COVID-19 pandemic further eroded demand for flexible office spaces as more people worked remotely. WeWork filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing $19 billion in liabilities and $15 billion in assets. It reached a restructuring deal with SoftBank and existing creditors to reduce over $3 billion in debt, but most shareholders will be wiped out.
On November 7, 2023, the U.S. stock market showed positive momentum with the Nasdaq rising by 0.9%, marking its eighth consecutive day of gains. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, continuing its winning streak for the seventh straight session, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up by 0.2%. Long-term Treasury yields decreased after a recent rise, while shorter-term yields saw a slight increase. The dollar strengthened following several days of decline, and oil prices dropped to nearly 4-month lows due to concerns about global demand. Notable stock movements included Intel's gain of 2.2% after canceling an investment in Vietnam and Salesforce's 2.1% increase following news of Lidiane Jones, CEO of Slack (which Salesforce acquired), would leave and head up the dating app Bumble.
DeFi & CeFi
- Coinbase adds 4 national security experts to its Global Advisory Council
- USDC stablecoin issuer Circle considers 2024 IPO
- Cardano announced the use of Polkadot SDK in its partner chain
- Binance releases the 12th Proof of Reserves
- Binance Ordinals protocol token rockets 50% on Binance listing
- The Graph, known as “Google of Web3”, plans AI-assisted querying
- Robinhood to expand crypto trading into EU, plans to start UK brokerage
- Coinbase blocked in Kazakhstan for breaking new digital assets law
Coinbase has added four national security experts, including former U.S. Secretary of Defense Dr. Mark T. Esper, to its Global Advisory Council. The other members are Stephanie Murphy, a former congresswoman and former national security specialist; Frances Townsend, former Counterterrorism and Homeland Security Advisor to President George W. Bush; and David Urban, a lobbyist and former senior advisor to Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. The council will examine the consequences of regulatory uncertainty for cryptocurrency in the United States, including long-term economic and national security impacts.
In other news, Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, is reportedly considering going public with an initial public offering (IPO) in 2024. The company has been in discussions with advisers regarding a potential IPO. While the valuation of the IPO is not confirmed, Circle was valued at $9 billion when it attempted to go public through a blank-check deal in 2022. Circle's USDC stablecoin has a market cap exceeding $24 billion, with an all-time high market cap of $56 billion. The company counts major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, and BlackRock among its investors.
In an analysis by @Glassnode, the HODLer Net Position Change metric, which measures the monthly net change in the amount of Bitcoin held for long-term investment, has demonstrated a consistent pattern of inflows since June 2021, with the current Hodler inflow at 26.1K/Month. A significant increase occurred after the June 2022 sell-off, coinciding with the collapse of 3AC and LUNA-UST. This trend indicates a collective maturation of the BTC supply, with investors actively accumulating and retaining their coins, reducing spending and transaction activities. This trend suggests a strengthening conviction among investors, potentially signaling a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the long term.
In other news, Tellor's market performance has demonstrated robust growth, with its valuation surging over 1,025% in the last quarter, signaling substantial investor confidence as the asset ascends towards its previous peak of May 2021. Currently positioned at 112th in market capitalization rankings, the cryptocurrency witnessed a noteworthy uptick, with its price reaching $131 recently. According to @Santiment, critical to this ascent are holders of 1K to 100K TRB, who have increased their holdings by 15% within a mere seven-week period, now controlling 46% of the total supply. This strategic accumulation by key stakeholders, amidst a spike in high-value transactions, underscores a bullish outlook for Tellor, a clear indication of their long term investment perspective and a potential catalyst for upward price pressure.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH dropped to 49.13% and 55.69%, respectively.
- 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC rose to 6.82% while 25-delta skew (C-P) for ETH 7 days dropped to 5.26%.
- The futures market witnessed $137.97M liquidations since yesterday, with longs representing 60.98% of the total.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
The 7-day implied volatility for Bitcoin (BTC) has edged slightly higher, moving from 46.97% to 48.14%, indicating a slight increase in expected weekly short-term market fluctuations. Conversely, the 30-day implied volatility has trended slightly downward from 52.17% to 51.19%, suggesting a more stable outlook for the coming month for the short term as the market appears to be calming down from the previous pump.
The term structures for BTC and ETH are both in contango, with BTC's short-dated options' implied volatilities (IVs) falling compared to those of yesterday’s for tenors up to 79 days. Contracts with expiries up to 233 days, however, are stabilizing, which indicates a medium-term market consensus on volatility. Simultaneously, ETH's short-dated options exhibit a substantial IV drop with the impact lessening over the further dated contracts, suggesting an alignment on stable long-term volatility expectations for Ethereum.
BTC's 25-delta 7-day skew has risen from 7.06% to 8.11%, indicating a growing short-term bullish sentiment, while its 30-day skew has also increased from 6.00% to 6.82%, pointing to sustained optimism for the month ahead. In contrast, ETH's 7-day skew has dropped sharply from 9.11% to 5.26%, suggesting a decline in immediate bullish expectations. Its 30-day skew has also fallen from 7.78% to 5.90%, revealing a more cautious medium-term outlook as the market increasingly favors BTC over ETH.
According to @Paradigm, Bitcoin (BTC) options activity signals a bullish sentiment with traders buying 751 and 626 call spreads for November 10, 2023, with strikes at $36,000/$37,500 and $35,500/$37,500 respectively, indicating a belief in a near-term price increase. For Ethereum (ETH), the mood is mixed: the sale of 6,375 straddles at a $1,900 strike for November 24, 2023, suggests a bearish outlook on volatility, while the purchase of 6,000 calls signals some traders are hedging for an upward price trajectory.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the price of BTC oscillates around the $35.6K mark with a strong bounce from the lower boundary of the established trading range. This rebound indicates a resilient support level, with additional reinforcement from the 50-period Moving Average (MA) line, which serves as a dynamic support. In this pattern, if BTC were to break below the current channel, it would face its next significant support at approximately $32K, which would constitute a decline of around 8.67% from its current price. Conversely, should the bullish momentum continue, the overhead resistance is anticipated to be near the $38K level. The RSI is situated at 59.02, suggesting that while there is momentum building, the market is not yet in overbought territory, allowing room for potential price appreciation.
Moving on, ETH is stabilizing near the $1.89K level, while it continues to respect the boundaries of an ascending wedge formation. This pattern typically suggests that buyers are in control, yet with diminishing upward momentum as the price converges towards the apex, often leading to a decisive move. Should the trendline of this formation be breached to the downside, the next support level is around $1.76K, marking a potential 6.92% retreat from the current price point. On the upside, ETH would encounter resistance near the $1.97K price level. Meanwhile, the RSI stands at 56.82, indicating a neutral stance with a slight tilt towards bullish momentum.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳