🌳Chinese Exports Unexpectedly Rose In November In Contrast To Economists’ Expectations; CZ Ordered To Stay In The US Until Sentencing In February

08 Dec 2023, Friday

2:48 AM

🌳Chinese Exports Unexpectedly Rose In November In Contrast To Economists’ Expectations; CZ Ordered To Stay In The US Until Sentencing In February

BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$43,411.00

$2,363.25

$4,638.25

(-0.97%)

 (+5.45%)

(+0.71%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)


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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • HSBC cautioned the market with China despite the unexpected rise in export figures; Yen rallied amidst speculations around the potential abandonment of the negative interest rate regime (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Binance founder CZ must stay in U.S. until sentencing; Deloitte taps Polkadot ecosystem’s Kilt blockchain for digital shipping logistics (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Whales impact LINK market; Ethereum's price surge shows growing investor confidence (More in On-Chain)
  • Bitcoin's IV declines suggest consolidation; Skew narrows, hinting at growing bearish sentiment (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC exhibits consolidation at 43K; ETH tests upper channel limit for bullish continuation (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

In November, China's exports in U.S. dollar terms unexpectedly increased by 0.5% YoY, contrary to the expected 1.1% decline, while imports fell by 0.6%, missing the forecasted 3.3% increase. HSBC's Chief Asia Economist, Frederic Neumann, cautioned that despite the positive export figure, the Chinese economy faces challenges, with weak external demand. He highlighted that while fiscal stimulus has been used, it's unlikely to significantly boost domestic demand. Neumann emphasized the need for sustained demand for a meaningful export cycle, stating that the economy still has a "steep hill to climb" for accelerating growth. China's exports to the U.S. rose by 7%, but those to the EU and ASEAN fell by 14.5% and 7%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Yen rallied significantly, consolidating its largest move in nearly a year, spurred by increasing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might abandon its negative interest-rate regime this month. The currency surged 1% against the dollar, following a nearly 4% jump in the previous session. The move might have been amplified by speculators closing bearish positions on the Yen. Comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and one of his deputies rattled financial markets. Economists are increasingly expecting the BOJ to achieve its inflation target, with a majority forecasting an end to the negative rate regime by April.

On Thursday, the stock markets exhibited generally positive performances, with gains led by the Nasdaq (1.4%), followed by the S&P 500 (0.8%) and the Dow Jones (0.2%). Positive momentum in big tech stocks offset concerns about a sluggish Chinese economy, reflected in declining imports. Labor market data, including a slight increase in initial jobless claims and earlier reports of lower job openings and private job additions, influenced market sentiment. Individual stock movements included Walgreens leading the Dow higher with a 7.2% increase, while the S&P 500 saw gains in previously underperforming stocks, including Kenvue (KVUE) jumping 7.3% and Lithium miner Albemarle (ALB) gaining 6%. In the Nasdaq 100, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged 9.9% as several companies will start to use its new chips, Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 5.3% after the announcement of Gemini, and PayPal (PYPL) declined 1.8% due to Amazon's decision to stop accepting Venmo - a PayPal subsidiary.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Binance founder CZ must stay in U.S. until sentencing
  • Deloitte taps Polkadot ecosystem’s Kilt blockchain for digital shipping logistics
  • Sam Altman-backed Meanwhile Group starts Bitcoin private credit fund for institutional investors
  • Blocknative releases new Ethereum mempool explorer
  • Jack Dorsey’s Block Bitkey Bitcoin wallet comes to market in over 95 countries
  • Robinhood broadens crypto services to Europe
  • Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest sells another $24.3M Coinbase shares
  • TON blockchain stalls as Ordinals-inspired protocol sees surge in activity
  • Phoenix seals $380M deal with WhatsMiner for green Bitcoin mining

Binance's founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is required to stay in the United States until his sentencing in February, citing concerns of a potential flight risk. Judge Richard Jones made the decision on December 7th, noting Zhao's significant wealth abroad and lack of ties to the U.S., expressing doubts about securing his return if he were to leave for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where his family resides. Zhao, who faces a possible 18-month prison sentence for violating money laundering regulations after pleading guilty, has agreed not to appeal any sentence up to that duration. The judge granted the government's motion, mandating Zhao's presence in the U.S. until his sentencing, despite Zhao being on a $175 million bond primarily comprising assets beyond the government's reach.

In other news, a division of Deloitte, one of the “Big Four” accounting firms, is embracing the Polkadot-based Kilt blockchain to provide logistics and supply-chain services, particularly in the shipping industry. Deloitte is working with Nexxiot, a supply-chain technology company, to build a new logistics service called KYX on the KILT Protocol, integrating Know Your Client (KYC) and Know Your Cargo processes. Hapag-Lloyd and Vodafone are among the initial companies set to implement KYX, with Hapag-Lloyd planning to equip 1.5 million containers with secure tracking devices. Deloitte's involvement in blockchain spans several years, launching products and engaging in partnerships to facilitate blockchain-based solutions for enterprises and institutional clients.

On-Chain

According to @spotonchain, three major cryptocurrency traders collectively sold 1.824 million LINK recently, valued at approximately $26.6 million, through Binance and Paraswap platforms. This significant transaction resulted in a roughly 4% decrease in LINK's price. The first whale, identified by the wallet address 0x0fac, exchanged 569,908 LINK for 3,500 ETH, worth around $8 million, achieving an estimated profit of $4.55 million, a substantial 84.1% gain. The other two whales, with wallet addresses 0x8b9 and 0x362 and suspected to be the same individual, sold a combined total of 1.254 million LINK for 7,962 ETH, valued at $17.8 million. Their average selling price was $14.21 per LINK, leading to a joint profit of $8.55 million, a notable 92.1% increase.

Elsewhere, ETH has recently reached a noteworthy milestone, achieving a price of $2,349, its highest since June 2022, as highlighted by Santiment. This surge in value aligns with a notable long-term trend where the wealthiest Ethereum holders not using exchange platforms have been accumulating more wealth, while the selling pressure of major exchange-based ETH holders has been diminishing. The combination of factors is a positive indicator of Ethereum's potential to continue its upward price movement, suggesting a robust and growing confidence among key stakeholders in the Ethereum market.

Crypto Derivatives

  • Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained relatively unchanged at 55.24% and 56.49%, respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC fell to 1.16% while ETH remained at 2.70%.
  • The futures market witnessed $153.88M liquidations, with longs representing 53.94%.

Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

47.56%

DOGE

dYdX

OKX

30.19%

SOL

dYdX

Bybit

19.60%

ETH

dYdX

Binance

Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.


The 30-day implied volatility (IV) for BTC has moderated to 47.61%, indicative of a market expectation for reduced medium-term price volatility. This decline may imply a consolidation phase within the market's dynamics. In contrast, the 7-day IV has receded to 43.98%, reflecting a market sentiment of diminished short-term volatility.

The term structure of BTC is maintaining a contango pattern, with IVs in the short to mid-term showing a notable decline from the previous day, which reinforces the contango pattern observed.

The 25-delta 30-day call-put skew has narrowed to 1.98% and the 7-day skew fell to 0.76%, highlighting a shift in trader sentiment towards increased bearishness and immediate downside risk concerns. There has been a clear trend of skew dropping over the past 30 days, suggesting a strategic move by traders to hedge against potential losses and secure profits from the recent market rally in BTC’s price.

During @Paradigm’s Asia / Europe Session Hours, highlighted option flows this week, and emphasized downside coverage with strategic put purchases and structured positions. Key BTC trades included the purchase of 629x 29-Dec-23 43/40K Put Spreads and the sale of 250x 29-Dec-23 46K / 26-Jan-24 46K Call Calendars. Meanwhile, notable ETH structures involved a significant 2500x 29-Dec-23 2.1/1.7K Put Spread acquisition, coupled with the disposal of 1000x 29-Dec-23 2.1K / 29-Mar-24 2.1K Put Calendars.

Crypto Technical Analysis

Examining the 4-hour chart for BTC, the price is currently consolidating around the 43K mark. This level of consolidation suggests a balancing of supply and demand after a recent uptrend. The price action is contained within a rectangle pattern, indicating a potential indecision phase among traders. A decisive breakout above this consolidation box could lead BTC to approach its next notable resistance level at 46K, representing approximately a 7% increase from the current price. On the flip side, should the price break below the consolidation, the subsequent support is identifiable around the 40K region. The RSI is hovering at 62.5, which leans towards overbought territory, indicating that we might see a temporary pullback or consolidation in price as traders potentially take profits.

Moving on, ETH is currently showing a bullish posture on the 4-hour charts, with its price pressing against the upper boundary of an ascending channel. This price movement is underpinned by a series of higher lows and higher highs, a classic indicator of a strong uptrend. At the time of the screenshot, the price is testing the 2.36K level. If ETH breaks through this level, we may look towards the next resistance, the 2.5K mark, a potential increase of approximately 6% from the current level. Conversely, should a retracement occur, the lower trend line of the channel, currently near the 2.1K level, might offer support. This would represent a decrease of about 8% from its current price. The RSI is currently at 70.89, which suggests a moderate bullish momentum without immediate signs of being overbought.

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