S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
GM Treehouser 🌳
Welcome to our Treehouse Daily newsletter, where Treehouse brings you financial news and insights free daily! We believe you’ll find this helpful.
Also, in case you have missed it, check out our latest research piece 👇
You can also access our research articles on the Bloomberg Terminal with the command “NH TRH < GO >"!
Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- China bolsters economy with targeted policy; UK shop inflation eases, aiding consumers (More in Macro & TradFi)
- Binance founder CZ stuck in U.S. for the moment; Terror organizations now favor Tron over Bitcoin (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- Cumberland and Amber deposit mammoth amounts into CEXs; Ethereum Foundation transfers 1,000 ETH to multisig (More in On-Chain)
- BTC volatility declines signal calm; Contango evident as long-term expectations stabilize post 87 days (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- Bitcoin tests key SMAs amid volatility; Ethereum trades in defined channel range (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
The People's Bank of China, in its third quarter policy implementation report, has pledged to use targeted monetary policy to support expanding domestic demand. Stressing on the need for precise and powerful monetary interventions, the bank aims to ensure sufficient liquidity and enhance the stability of financial support for the real economy. Amidst challenges such as an imbalanced global recovery and a shaky domestic economic foundation, Beijing has introduced policies to bolster its post-pandemic recovery, addressing issues in the property sector, local government debt, and geopolitical tensions. The central bank also plans to maintain the yuan's stability and targets around 5% growth this year, signaling a strategic focus on internal economic strengthening in the face of global uncertainties.
UK shop price inflation in November marked its lowest rate in over a year, dropping to 4.3% from 5.2% in October, driven by heightened competition ahead of Christmas and a decline in food cost growth, as reported by the British Retail Consortium (BRC). This decrease reflects the sixth consecutive monthly reduction and is the lowest since June of the previous year. The easing in annual shop price inflation, particularly a drop to 2.5% in non-food prices and a slowdown in food inflation to 7.8%, is attributed to aggressive pricing strategies by retailers and lower input costs, especially for dairy products due to reduced domestic energy prices. While these trends are encouraging for consumer spending during the festive period, the BRC cautions about potential future price pressures from increased corporation tax rates and the national living wage, which could hinder or reverse the progress in curbing inflation.
Yesterday, US equities edged lower as traders took a breather following a four-week winning streak across all three major indices. The Nasdaq dipped by 0.07%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded marginal losses of 0.20% and 0.16%. E-commerce stocks like Amazon, Etsy, and Shopify rallied, benefiting from increased consumer spending on Black Friday. In particular, Affirm's stock soared by 11.97%, as the payment platform's "buy now, pay later" transactions hit a record high. In the bond market, Treasuries extended their strong performance in November, influenced by mixed US government debt sales and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes.
DeFi & CeFi
- Binance founder CZ stuck in U.S. for the moment
- Terror organizations now favor Tron over Bitcoin
- Crypto hedge fund Nine snags Dubai digital assets license
- ARK Invest sold $5M worth of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares last week
- Circle seeks to expand USDC presence in Japan with SBI Holdings
- Hong Kong launches probe into alleged $15.4M crypto scam by Hounax
- Standard Chartered joins China’s CBDC pilot testing
- Japanese crypto fund CGV invests $5M into the Blast ecosystem
Binance founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is under scrutiny by a federal judge in the U.S. pending his sentencing early next year, following his guilty plea to violating the Bank Secrecy Act. Despite a release on a $175M bond, Zhao's ability to return to the UAE, where his family resides, has been halted. The U.S. Department of Justice is concerned about a potential flight risk, given his considerable wealth and the absence of an extradition treaty between the U.S. and the UAE. The DOJ has not sought immediate detention but aims to prevent his departure from the U.S. Zhao's attorneys assert his willingness to accept responsibility by pleading guilty and highlight his family situation, requesting flexibility around the sentencing arrangements.
In other news, the Tron blockchain has eclipsed Bitcoin as the favored network for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, classified as terror organizations in several countries. Notably, there has been a surge in cryptocurrency seizures from Tron wallets since 2021, while seizures from Bitcoin wallets have declined. Israel reported 87 seizures from Tron wallets this year, mainly since July 2021, including 39 linked to Hezbollah and 26 associated with Hamas ally Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Tron's spokesperson Hayward Wong emphasized that while any technology could potentially be used for dubious activities, Tron cannot control who utilizes its network.
According to @lookonchain, Cumberland, a key player in the crypto market, has deposited an impressive 9,000 ETH, valued at approximately $18.16 million, into two major exchanges, Coinbase and Gemini. Complementing this activity, Amber, another influential entity in the crypto sphere, has also made a substantial deposit of 10,000 ETH, equivalent to around $20.18 million, to Binance. These concurrent high-value transfers to major exchanges may hint at a preparatory phase for significant trading activities, possibly signaling upcoming market volatility or strategic realignment by these entities in anticipation of market shifts.
According to @spotonchain, the Ethereum Foundation has transferred 1,000 ETH, valued at approximately $2.05 million, to a multisig wallet (0x4e6). This transaction is part of a larger pattern of activity from the Foundation, which has, over the past 11 days, transferred a total of 2,066 ETH (equating to roughly $4.21 million) to two different multisig wallets. These activities, reflecting calculated and substantial asset relocations by the Ethereum Foundation, carry implications for understanding the organization's operational strategy and could potentially impact market sentiment or Ethereum's ecosystem development.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH fell to 50.62% and 49.156%, respectively.
- The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH fell to 4.81% and 2.0%, respectively.
- The futures market witnessed $92.63M liquidations since Friday, with longs representing 73.25% of the total.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
In the last 24 hours, BTC's 7-day and 30-day implied volatilities have decreased to 42.60% and 46.73%, respectively. This decline indicates a contraction in expected price variability, suggesting that traders might anticipate a period of relative calm, possibly due to a lack of significant BTC-related events in the near term.
The BTC term structure continues to show contango. Despite today’s initial short-term volatility seeing a noticeable dip, it regains composure aligning closely with longer-term expectations as we approach the 87-day expiry mark. Past this threshold, implied volatilities level out, reflecting a market consensus of reduced medium to long-term volatility and suggesting a stable outlook for the BTC market in the foreseeable future.
In the last 24 hours, there has been a significant shift in the 25-delta call-put skew, reflecting evolving market sentiment. The 7-day skew has noticeably decreased from 6.46% to 4.80%, suggesting a reduced concern for immediate upside risk among traders. Concurrently, the 30-day skew also diminished, moving from 5.29% to 4.18%. This reduction in both the short-term and medium-term skews points to an overarching anticipation of lesser volatility. The more pronounced change in the 7-day skew compared to the 30-day skew highlights a short-term adjustment in market expectations.
During @Paradigm's US Session Hours on Monday, the cryptocurrency options market witnessed notable trading activities. For BTC, key transactions included the sale of 225 contracts of the 1-Dec-23 36500 Puts and the sale of 200 contracts of the 29-Dec-23 40000 Calls, showcasing diverse strategic approaches. In the ETH segment, traders actively engaged in buying 1250 contracts of the 1-Dec-23 2000 Puts.
Crypto Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, the price action is intersecting with the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), an indicator that market participants use to discern the intermediate trend direction. The proximity of the 50-period SMA to the current price level, around $37.2K, indicates that it is serving as a dynamic resistance. Additionally, the 100-period SMA lies just beneath, potentially acting as a secondary layer of support. This confluence of the SMAs within the context of the ascending wedge pattern suggests that the market would trade at this level for a while. A definitive close above the 50-period SMA could embolden buyers, potentially propelling prices towards the wedge's upper resistance at $40K, representing an approximate 7.5% increase from the current level. Should the price retreat below the 100-period SMA, however, the next support is anticipated at $34K, which would be about an 8.6% decrease. The RSI, presently neutral, does not indicate a clear momentum direction, further emphasizing the pivotal role of the 50 and 100-period SMAs in determining the next significant market move.
Examining the 4-hour Ethereum chart reveals that the price is trading within a horizontal channel, oscillating between support and resistance levels that have been well-established over recent trading sessions. Currently, the price is near $2.02K, in the middle of the channel. The lower boundary also coincides with the 200-period SMA, enhancing its significance as a support level. Should this support give way, there's a clear path to the next support zone at $1.9K, which would represent a decline of approximately 6.39%. On the upside, the upper boundary of the channel is defined by resistance at around $2.1K. A breakout above this level could lead to a price increase of approximately 3.6%, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment. The RSI, at a neutral level, does not currently suggest an immediate directional bias, adding to the price's indecisiveness within the channel. The confluence of the horizontal channel dynamics with the 50 and 100-period SMAs indicates a market in equilibrium, with traders to respond quickly to a definitive break on either side.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳