S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- BoJ maintains monetary policy; Netflix’s stock rallies post latest quarterly report (More in Macro & TradFi)
- OKX experiences a flash crash in price; Mt.Gox may be progressing with its repayment schedule (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- Grayscale deposits 15,222 BTC; Arkham identified on-chain addresses of major institutional players (More in On-Chain)
- BTC IV stabilizes; options traders exhibit caution amid bearish sentiment (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC RSI rose to 39 while that of ETH remains in oversold territory (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
In a decisive move, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has opted to maintain its current monetary policy settings and forward guidance, a decision aligned with its commitment to economic stability amidst fluctuating global financial conditions. The central bank continues to uphold an interest rate of -0.1% and a 10-year JGB yield target at 0%, reinforcing its yield curve control policy with allowances for yield fluctuations up to 1.0%. This stance, as detailed in the BoJ's recent quarterly report, reflects a balanced economic activity outlook and a steadfast approach to monetary easing, highlighting the central bank's readiness to adapt to changing conditions. The report also notes the stability of Japan's financial system, gradually increasing inflation expectations and moderate economic recovery. This decision, signaling the BoJ's cautious yet responsive approach, is expected to significantly influence the Japanese Yen's performance against major currencies, shaping investor strategies and market dynamics in the immediate future.
Meanwhile, Netflix experienced significant growth in the final quarter, adding 13.1 million subscribers, which exceeded the anticipated $8 to $9 million, bringing the total to a record $260.8 million paid subscribers. This surge surpassed the company's third-quarter increase of $8.76 million. Financially, Netflix reported a robust fourth-quarter net income of $937.8 million, or $2.11 per share, a considerable rise from $55.3 million in the previous year. Quarterly revenue also saw an increase, reaching $8.83 billion from $7.85 billion year-over-year. Netflix is adjusting its focus from sheer growth towards profitability, raising its full-year operating margin forecast for 2024 to 24% and projecting earnings per share of $4.49 for Q1 of 2024, above Wall Street expectations. As the streaming market evolves, Netflix is positioning itself uniquely, opting not to pursue acquisitions of traditional entertainment companies or linear networks, despite anticipating further industry consolidation. Instead, the company is expanding its content slate through partnerships, like the deal to stream WWE Raw starting next year, marking its largest venture into live entertainment. Furthermore, Netflix is refining its ad-supported tier, which now boasts over 23 million global monthly active users, up from 15 million in November. The company plans to enhance this tier's appeal to both subscribers and advertisers, suggesting a strategic shift to amplify long-term revenue potential through its advertising business.
The S&P 500 achieved a third consecutive record high close, climbing 0.29% to $4,864.59, reflecting a mix of investor reactions to varied quarterly earnings reports and anticipation for upcoming announcements from major tech firms. With the market's eyes set on the "Magnificent 7" group of megacap companies, their reports are expected to significantly influence the market's trajectory. Netflix's positive performance in the after-hours trading, driven by strong subscriber numbers, exemplifies the market's responsiveness to corporate earnings exceeding expectations. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight decline of 0.25% to $37,905.45 amid mixed corporate results. Verizon's optimistic forecast and Procter & Gamble's earnings beat contributed positively, while 3M and Johnson & Johnson's less favorable reports led to shares decline. Market valuations stand high, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio exceeding its long-term average. This comes as Wall Street anticipates the central bank's interest rate decision, with upcoming key economic indicators like the PCE index and S&P Global PMI readings providing insight into potential policy directions.
CeFi & DeFi
- OKX’s native token OKB experienced a flash crash of more than 50%
- Mt. Gox may be progressing with its repayment process according to recent emails received by its former customers
- Trump reiterates anti-CBDC stance in another rally
- Crypto Custody Specialist Taurus Brings Tokenized Securities to Retail Customers in Switzerland
- Invesco and WisdomTree cut fees on European ETPs
OKX's native exchange token, OKB, experienced a rapid decline of more than 50% in just three minutes due to a series of liquidations triggered by abnormal price fluctuations. Following the incident, OKB recovered from a low of $25.17 to $45.64, with a significant increase in 24-hour trading volume. OKX confirmed that it would compensate users for losses resulting from the liquidation cascade, including losses from on-chain trades. The exchange also stated that it would optimize risk control rules and liquidation mechanisms to prevent similar issues in the future.
Meanwhile, Mt. Gox, the defunct cryptocurrency exchange that suffered a major hack in 2014 resulting in the loss of 850,000 BTC (now valued at $33 billion), seems to be making progress in repaying affected customers. Some former customers have received emails asking for identity and account details confirmation. The emails indicate that recipients will receive payments in Bitcoin or Bitcoin cash (BCH) to their nominated Mt. Gox accounts. Mt. Gox, once the world's largest crypto exchange, was able to recover around 20% of the stolen funds. However, this ongoing repayment process may have a further impact on BTC prices due to the significant volume of BTC potentially being released.
Recent on-chain activity highlighted by Lookonchain indicated that Grayscale has deposited another 15,222 BTC, worth roughly $588.5M, to CoinbasePrime. Since the BTC ETF was passed, Grayscale has deposited 79,213 BTC worth around $3.27B to CoinBasePrime and is currently still holding 535,755 BTC worth about $20.68B. While the market reaction was milder than the previous days, this could still have a significant impact on the BTC market if Grayscale chooses to continuously sell its BTC holdings in the short term.
In other news, Arkham's recent analysis has successfully identified the on-chain addresses of major institutional players including Blackrock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton's ETFs, revealing their significant Bitcoin holdings. As of the latest data, BlackRock leads with a substantial holding of 33.431K BTC, valued at approximately $1.32 billion. Fidelity follows closely, possessing 29.907K BTC, currently worth around $1.18 billion. Bitwise holds a notable 10.152K BTC, valued at $401 million, while Franklin Templeton has a smaller investment of 1.16K BTC, amounting to $45.9 million.
- Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH rose slightly to 49.62% and 50.42%, respectively.
- The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC fell to -3.12% while ETH fell to -4.72%.
- The futures market witnessed $304.18M liquidations, with longs representing 75.34%.
Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps.
2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.
3) Lookback period is 24 hours.
The IV of BTC has shown notable stabilization, indicating a decrease in market volatility following an initial significant drop. Presently, the 7-day IV stands at 47.13%, closely aligned with the 30-day IV, which remains consistent at 46.69%. This steadiness in IV coincides with a minor uptick following JPMorgan's downgrade of Coinbase's stock, a move attributed to Bitcoin's lackluster price performance and the recent approval of nine spot exchange-traded funds.
The term structure of BTC has predominantly maintained its contango shape, reflecting the pattern observed the previous day. Nonetheless, a slight anomaly persists in two-day expiries, likely due to the anticipation of the price impact from Greyscale and upcoming macroeconomic indicators, such as the US Q4 GDP preliminary data tomorrow and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data, scheduled for Friday.
The 25-delta call-put skews for BTC options indicate a more bearish outlook with the 7-day skew falling to -2.87%. Conversely, the 30-day skew has inclined to -3.16%, signaling a less pronounced bearish sentiment for the medium term. This data suggests that BTC option traders are exercising caution, reflecting uncertainty and a conservative stance toward future price movements.
Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted that option flows during US Hours emphasized downside coverage with strategic put purchases and structured positions. Key BTC trades included the sale of 303x 26-Jan-24 39/40k Strangles and a 200x 23-Feb-24 39k / 29-Mar-24 42k Call Calendar bought position. In the ETH market, significant activity was seen with the purchase of 17750x 26-Jan-24 2450/2600 Call Spreads, and a 10000x 27-Dec-23 3500 Call was also bought.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Onto technical analysis, BTC is positioned on the daily chart at $39.8K, closely shadowed by an established support level near $37.8K. This support region appears to be sustaining despite escalated selling pressure from institutional entities such as Grayscale, countered by a robust retail demand that's seemingly underpinning the current price level. The technical indicators paint a nuanced picture: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has ticked up from a more bearish 27 to 39, signaling a potential moderation in the prevailing downward trajectory and hinting at a possible short-term bullish retracement. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) corroborates the downtrend, yet the RSI's recent uptick warrants attention for a potential reversal. Looking ahead, the $40K emerges as a critical resistance zone, one that investors are advised to watch vigilantly.
Moving on to ETH, ETH’s daily chart reveals a discernible downtrend, as evidenced by an RSI of 39, suggesting a bearish momentum with potential room for further decline before reaching oversold territory. The MACD indicator reinforces this sentiment, displaying a pronounced bearish histogram. Currently, ETH is trading around $2.22K and is establishing a support zone between $2.18K and $2.16K. Should this support give way, there could be an immediate fallback to the $2.1K level, which aligns with historical resistance now serving as support. Conversely, should the market sentiment shift favorably for Ethereum, there's a potential for price action to challenge the resistance at approximately $2.38K, which would constitute an approximate 7% increase from the current price.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳