S&P 500 Futures
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- China first CNY holiday after loosening of COVID lockdown measures leads to blowout flight and movie tickets sales (more in Macro & TradFi)
- Genesis seeks $20M from “Bitcoin Jesus” Roger Ver (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- More BTC miners sell off reserves to capitalize on price rallies (more in On-Chain)
- IV continues to largely fall across the curve, ETH call skew briefly turned negative (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC to test its resistance zone of $23.3K-$24.3K with ETH soon to re-test its resistance zone (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
Hong Kong markets will reopen today from CNY break and futures indicate ~1% upside vs last Friday’s close for major local indices. China onshore remains closed as the first CNY holiday after the loosening of COVID lockdown measures led to blowout flight and movie ticket sales. US markets dived before opening to recover most of the losses as housing data showed signs of initial recovery; today’s 4Q22 GDP, initial jobless claim and new home sales data should provide further insights to the tug-of-war between recessionary and optimistic bets.
US indices saw their futures dip 2-3% lower before the opening bell but managed to climb back to only marginal losses. NASDAQ closed 0.8% lower, SPX 0.2% lower and DOW 0.13% down. US Treasury yields and oil are steady into a data-heavy trading session today.
DeFi & CeFi
- Genesis seeks $20M from “Bitcoin Jesus” Roger Ver
- Doodles 2 to launch on Flow Blockchain
- Marinade Finance announces rewards to boost liquid staking on Solana
- Dydx pushes back token release for investors from February to December
- Sushiswap to launch Perp dex on Sei Network
- Celsius hints at new token launch in restructuring plans
Doodles, the successful PFP NFT project, announced that it will be launching Doodles 2 on Flow blockchain. The second project will provide more customizability for NFT owners for social media and gaming. Elsewhere, Sushiswap is planning to launch a perp dex on Sei network in its efforts to expand across non Ethereum chains. This came after the vote to change the projects tokenomics passed last week. In the perps market, Dydx will push back the unlock date of investor tokens from February to December to reduce the amount of tokens entering the market.
Elsewhere, Genesis has been seeking $20M from Roger Ver after failure to “settle cryptocurrency option transactions”. However, the early adopter has gone public on a Reddit post to argue that he does not in fact owe Genesis the said sum but has the funds to do so.
DYDX saw a huge spike in on-chain activities as whale transactions exceeding $1M surpassed a 1-year high while active addresses spiked to a 15-month high.
The price of Bitcoin skyrocketed during the most recent crypto boom, and miner profitability increased. However, miners seemed to be selling off their BTC reserves to secure cash. This may be because miners have suffered from low profit margins for a considerable amount of time due to the stagnant BTC price while energy prices rose, along with the debt pressure brought on by rising interest rates.
- BTC and ETH funding rate remain unchanged, APT funding rate deeply negative
- 30-day ATM IV dropped for both BTC & ETH to 57.1% and 63.6% respectively
- 30-day 25d call skew for BTC & ETH at 2.92% and -0.1% respectively
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, DOGE vs USDT perps
2) CEX observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & DYDX
@CexyArbBot allows you to customize CEX, 100+ pairs & lookback periods combo
For futures, total liquidations for the last 24hrs came in at $238.52M, with the majority coming from shorts at $173.17M.
On the options front, IV largely dipped across the curve as term structure remains in backwardation for BTC and contango for ETH. Call skew has also tightened in the past 24 hours after 7-day call skew briefly turned negative for ETH. RV finally bounced higher to 53.8 for BTC while staying flat at 59.8 for ETH. Variance risk premium rose to 5.2% for BTC and to 4.6% for ETH.
On the flow front, volumes were centered largely around 30 June 2023 as traders expressed bullish views on BTC with bull call spread as the dominant strategy. Meanwhile for ETH, traders continue to err on the side of caution as bear diagonal spreads (calls) were the most popular strategy.
Lastly, the VIX fell further to 19.1.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Onto TA, BTC is currently testing the $23.3K-$24.3K resistance zone last seen in mid-August 2022. On the daily, RSI has held steady at 83 after breaking the neutral level on 10 January. The indicator has been in the overbought territory for over three weeks with its high at 89. If this bullish momentum continues, price will continue to test the resistance zone of $23.3K-$24.3K, but if rejected, the next support level stands at 21.4K.
As for ETH, it attempts to again test the upper bound of its $1.51K-$1.66K resistance zone from which it was heavily rejected on 21 January. With RSI dipping below the overbought region, the next support zone is at $1.22K-$1.30K if it loses momentum.
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