S&P 500 Futures
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
GM Treehouser 🌳
Welcome to our Treehouse Daily newsletter (previously known as The Canopy Collective), where Treehouse brings you financial news and insights free daily! We believe you’ll find this helpful.
In case you have missed it, check out our latest insights piece 👇
Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Indices continue decline as Fed policy weighs on markets (more in Macro & TradFi)
- Binance.US’s bid for Voyager’s assets highest at $1.022 billion, OKX resumes trading and to compensate affected users (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- ETH balance on exchanges falls as preference for self custody continues increasing (more in On-Chain)
- ETH traders look to profit from short-term price movement to the upside with calendar call spread (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC breaks lower, ETH attempts a break out (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
GM! Stocks and bonds both sold off as markets battle around Fed’s rate path next year, with big tech dragging indices lower. In Asia, BOJ is expected to leave policy unchanged today with the market eagerly waiting for Governor Kuroda’s comment on inflation. In China, commercial banks might be cutting the 5-year loan prime rate by 10bps to 4.2% according to Bloomberg Economics. Meanwhile in the emerging markets credit universe, distressed debt investors are having a party as only $1.3bn out of $118bn sovereign bonds from non-defaulted EMs that are trading at distressed levels will be due next year, leaving much alpha to be generated from security selection.
US stocks closed lower for the fourth straight session, with NASDAQ falling almost 10% since the CPI euphoria. The tech index lost 1.19%, S&P 0.75% and DOW 0.39%. US Treasury bonds sold off across the curve, seeing yields shooting up by more than 10bps and curve steepening on the longer end. As 10-year treasury yields battle the key 3.5%, which is set as target price for end of 2023 by many investment banks, macro hedge funds are looking to make another blowout year after two handsome years of return in a row. Oil price rose in both WTI and Brent.
DeFi & CeFi
- Nexon Finance testnet now live on zkSync 2.0.
- Gate.io deposits and withdrawals normalized
- OKX resumes trading, to reimburse users & deploy multi cloud
- Axelar creates $60M startup ecosystem program
- Three Arrows Capital reportedly withdrew 2,000 $ETH from Binance.
- On December 20, 2022, Ren 1.0 will shut down
- Binance acquires Indonesian crypto exchange Tokocrypto, CoinDesk reports.
- Voyager announces Binance.US asset acquisition agreement
After reviewing strategic alternatives, Binance.US's proposal for Voyager's assets was the highest and best, maximizing value provided to its creditors in a timely manner. The fair market value of Voyager's cryptocurrency portfolio at a future date, estimated at $1.002 billion at current market pricing, plus $20 million of incremental value makes it at $1.022 billion. According to court-approved disbursements and platform capabilities, Binance.US will return crypto to customers in kind.
OKX said it would contact clients who may have lost money due to the outage to negotiate compensation and will be liable for any platform-related damages. OKX blamed a single cloud service provider for the service disruption. To deploy its key services on multiple clouds, the exchange will use multi cloud deployment. Any particular cloud service provider problem won't impact OKX's core services after implementation.
Looking on-chain, the MVRV model from Santiment indicates that after the massive decline in crypto markets as a whole during the past few days, several projects are now at historical pain points where bounces occur, which can be indicative of a good price level to accumulate some altcoins.
Elsewhere, the number of BTC unique addresses across multiple supply amounts has been constantly growing, which can be indicative of investors that are still accumulating BTC despite market conditions.
- BTC and ETH funding rate remains positive
- BTC 7-day and 30-day ATM IV dropped from 52 to 46 and 56 to 54
- ETH 7-day ATM IV rose fell from 65 to 61 and its 30-day ATM IV rose from 65 to 66
On the flow side, the 3 most traded instruments for ETH are all call options with more than 3 months DTE. The most traded strategy is a reverse call calendar spread where traders buy a short-term option and sell a long-term option with the same strike price.
For BTC, the most traded strategy in the past 24 hours is the bull call spread which is evident from the graph as the daily volume traded seemed to come in pairs.
The FTX saga led to less liquidity in the options market as many traders are less willing to trade in this volatile market. Market markers now make up a significant percentage of the options volume.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Looking at TA, BTC has fallen further after it was hovering at the $16.7K level. RSI on the H4 has taken another dip into oversold territory as price wicked to $16.2K. The next level of support looks to be at $16K if it is not able to reclaimed $16.7K.
Looking at ETH, price briefly wicked to $1.14K early this morning and now looks to be making a bounce up to $1.2K. With H4 RSI in a bullish divergence ETH looks to be making an attempt to higher levels. Its first level to reclaim would be $1.2K.
Track. Monitor. Discover. Swap. All with Harvest.
The all-in-one DeFi portfolio management platform for the productive investor.
Wall Street falls fourth straight day as recession worries nag
China's COVID surge hits Beijing trading floors, Shanghai finance hub
Australia's central bank considered pausing hikes at Dec meeting, still sees more ahead
European shares regain ground after brutal selloff last week
South African rand jumps after Ramaphosa re-elected ANC leader
Kazakhstan Tightens Regulation for Miners, Looks to Develop Broader Crypto Industry.
Bitcoin Addresses Tied to Defunct Canadian Crypto Exchange QuadrigaCX Wake Up.
Crypto Markets Today: Binance.US to Buy Voyager Digital's Assets; Bitcoin Slides Into the Red.
FTX’s Bankman-Fried Gave Ex-Jane Street Traders Who Formed Modulo Capital $400M.
Binance Losing Auditing Partner Mazars Leaves Crypto Questions Unanswered.
Crypto Trading Protocol Drift Relaunches Into Rocky Solana DeFi Landscape.
Notorious B.I.G. in the Limelight in Metaverse VR Concert Experience.
Web3 Startup Yuga Labs Names Former Activision Blizzard President as New CEO.
$1.7M of Bitcoin tied to QuadrigaCX reawakens after years of dormancy.
Binance Finalizes Acquisition of Indonesian Crypto Trading Firm Tokocrypto.
Polychain Leads $7M Funding for Hardware Wallet Developer Foundation Devices.
Treehouse Research 🌳