S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- US markets closed on Thanksgiving holiday; Anwar to lead the next Malaysian government; China RRR cuts fail to uplift China risk assets (more in Macro & TradFi)
- Binance to bid for Voyager as it plans to launch a $1bn fund to purchase distressed assets (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- BTC’s adjusted MVRV has reached a 4-year low; average dormancy spiked to a 9-month high (more in On-Chain)
- Sentiment eased as IV plummets; VIX falls to a three-month low of 20.42 (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC and ETH lose steam after rebound as price likely to trail sideways into the weekend (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
Major TradFi markets were on the sideline yesterday as US exchanges closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Malaysian assets jumped higher yesterday with the benchmark index up over 4% and the currency MYR gaining 1.8% against the greenback, after Anwar’s party was chosen by the Sultan to lead the next government following an indecisive election. Chinese stocks and currency, on the other hand, failed to rally on the RRR cut as COVID numbers remain in a steep uptrend.
All three major US equity index futures are steady into Asia open. The S&P 500 and the DJIA extended their winning streaks, climbing for the 3rd day in a row by 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively. The Nasdaq also rose by 0.5%. The dollar slid by 0.2%, and the 10Y treasury yield fell by 4.1 bps to 3.67%. Elsewhere, WTI crude was relatively unchanged, trading at $78.30 a barrel.
DeFi & CeFi
- DeFi TVL is down -0.50% in the past 24 hours
- Binance to form a $1bn fund to purchase distressed assets, with Binance.US to bid for Voyager
- MakerDAO Governance approves use of GNO as Collateral
- Genesis hires investment bank Moelis & Company to explore restructuring and other options
- Cross-chain protocol, Wormhole, adds support for Arbitrum
Binance has revealed plans to launch a $1bn fund called the Industry Recovery Initiative (IRI) to purchase distressed assets, as well as providing funding for promising projects that are cash deficient. Jump Crypto, GSR and Polygon Ventures are a few of the companies that have committed to contributing to the fund.
For on-chain, Bitcoin average dormancy has reached its highest level since February 2022. The indicator measures the average number of days that each spent coin had remained dormant before it was moved. The metric tends to spike when selling pressure has peaked.
Meanwhile, the adjusted MVRV for BTC, which measures the market-wide profit excluding lost coins, is at 0.63. That means BTC investors are averaging an unrealized loss of -37%. Only 1.6% of days since BTC started trading has it been worse.
• Funding rate flipped positive on both BTC and ETH perps
• 30-day IV fell for both BTC and ETH to 63.86% and 82.09%, respectively
• 30-day 25d put skew eased for both BTC and ETH to -13.25% and -15.21%, respectively
For futures, total liquidations came in at $44M, the lowest all-week round, with the majority coming from short liquidations at $26M.
On the options front, sentiment has improved slightly as IV on both BTC and ETH continues to fall, with the 7-day IV particularly hard hit due to DOV flows. The near-term VRP is still positive, while the term structure remains in contango. Put skew on both BTC and ETH continues to ease higher.
On the flow side, mostly topside trades were observed on BTC and ETH, with large block orders primarily for short puts and long calls. Bull diagonal spreads and bull call spreads are the two other most traded structures.
Finally, the VIX fell to a new three-month low of 20.42 on Thursday.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Looking at TA, BTC lost steam from its rebound last night due to lower volumes on Thanksgiving. Ending the week, a hopeful situation for BTC would be to hold the 16,152 level by the end of the week, else a close lower would suggest further downside to the 15K region. On the daily and H4, a divergence is seen between RSI and price with lower lows on the price and higher lows for RSI. With lower volumes, it’s possible to see BTC range between the downward trending slope and the 16,152 level.
Looking at ETH, price has found resistance at the downward trending slope on the H4. On the daily, price has found support on a long upward trendline extending to June when ETH bottomed at the $1,000 level. With higher lows on the RSI, and slightly lower lows for price, a bullish divergence is also forming for ETH. With lower volumes expected over the weekends, price will likely range between the long upward trend line around $1,081 and the shorter H4 downward sloping resistance level at $1,195.
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