Binance Oracle Network Launches; Ribbon Lend To Expand Borrowers; Tech Stocks Faltered But Crypto Held Up

GM Treehouser 🌳

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

• US new home sales fell in September; Tech stocks battered after a series of disappointing earnings results (more in Macro & TradFi)
• Binance launches its own Binance Oracle Network; Community proposal to onboard two new borrowers on Ribbon Lend is underway (more in DeFi & CeFi)
• Miners might be accumulating more BTC as miner outflow volume reaches 22-month low (more in On-Chain)
• Put skew turns positive for ETH (more in Crypto Derivatives)
• BTC and ETH continue their rally after breaking past key resistance levels; H4 shows bearish divergence forming for ETH (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

GM! US new home sales fall in September, resuming a downtrend as decades-high mortgage rates sap affordability. Purchases of new single-family homes slid 10.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units last month, tumbling 17.6% YoY. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada surprised the market with a 50bps hike rather than the expected 75bps hike. Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, stated that its "tightening phase will draw to a close," despite the fact that it was still far from its goal of low, stable, and predictable inflation of 2%.

US equities ended the day lower with the S&P 500 down 0.74%, the NASDAQ down 2.04%, and the DJIA remaining unchanged. Tech stocks were among the biggest losers, as disappointing earnings results sent giants like Alphabet tanking almost 10%h. This comes despite the fall in the 10Y US Treasury yield which dived another 10 bps to 4.00%, now tallying to almost 30bps compression in the past 3 days. Lastly, WTI crude oil surged 1.02% to $88.22 per barrel as US crude exports hit an all-time high.

DeFi & CeFi

• Binance launches its own Binance Oracle network, starting with the BNB chain
• Ribbon Finance announces four new institutions that will be added to its pool of Ribbon Lend borrowers
• Polygon and Axelar partner up to expand interoperability of Polygon Supernets
• zkSync 2.0 Testnet completes Regenesis
• Decentralized Frontend Hosting Protocol Armada Network Announces Public Launch
• Merit Circle Community Proposal Regarding Burning 200 Million $MC from Community Incentives Allocation Gets Passed

Following the initial launch of Ribbon Lend, which onboarded Folkvang and Wintermute as their first two borrowers, the undercollateralized lending platform has announced four additional potential borrowers, two of which will be added to the Ribbon Lend platform at the discretion of the community under a governance vote proposal. The four institutions that are under consideration are Parallel Capital, Amber Group, Auros, and Nibbio.

On-Chain

BTC miner net position change, a metric that measures the total net amount of Bitcoin being withdrawn or deposited by the miners over the last 30 days into or out of their wallets has shown that miners have been gradually selling their BTC over the past few months. Depressed prices coupled with rising hash rates over the last few quarters are likely to have led to miners selling their BTC to preserve capital.

However, after the recent market rally, BTC miner outflow volume has reached a 22-month low of $950,018.56, indicating that miners might still be accumulating before looking for better price levels to sell.

Crypto Derivatives

• Funding rate turns slightly negative for BTC perps and remains positive for ETH perps
• 30-day IV increases slightly for BTC to 58.1% and increases significantly for ETH to 81.6%
• 30-day 25d put skew decreases in magnitude for BTC to -3.4% and turns positive for ETH to 0.12%

For futures, total liquidations yesterday amounted to $747.16M, with 82.6% of that being short liquidations. BTC and ETH futures OI are also up 1.38% and 3.73% respectively.

On the options front, for BTC and ETH, put-call ratio has decreased to 0.62 and increased to 0.57 respectively. For ETH, IV across the November and December expiries has increased. Popular traded structures include the long call butterfly for BTC and bear diagonal call spreads for ETH. Flow is bidding risks for both BTC and ETH with many calls ranging from end-October to end-December expiries purchased through Paradigm.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC continued its climb, rising by 3.43% overnight to an intraday high of $21K. After breaking past the $20.4K resistance level, price is now testing the 100-d moving average (MA). On the H4, the bullish momentum has stalled during US trading hours. In order for the rally to continue, it remains imperative that prices stay above the $20.4K level.

Over to ETH, price jumped by 7.30% in the past 24 hours, reaching an intraday of $1,596. Compared to its counterpart, price has broken past its 100-d MA and the daily RSI has reached overbought levels. On the H4, a bearish divergence can be seen forming which could limit further upside in the near term.

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Daily Readings

TradFi

• U.S. Inflation Reduction Act a risk to Europe's industrial base, EU's Vestager says

• VIEW Bank of Canada surprises with smaller-than-expected interest rate increase

• U.S. new home sales fall in September; prices remain high

• U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

• IMF chief expects UK PM Sunak's government to stick to fiscal discipline

• IMF chief wants central banks to keep raising rates to hit 'neutral' level

• Australia inflation races to 32-year high, sounds rates alarm

• Global economy approaching a recession, central banks unchained: Reuters poll

• Meta shares plummet on weak fourth-quarter forecast and earnings miss.

• Powell again is facing political pressure as worries mount over the economy.

• Singapore's mortgage costs are rising — but some buyers are shrugging off higher rates.

Crypto

• Prometheum partners with Anchorage Digital on SEC-registered alternative trading system.

• SushiSwap to create three DAOs in Panama and Cayman in business restructuring.

• BIS releases full report on mBridge wholesale CBDC platform after successful pilot.

• Vietnam's prime minister calls for crypto regulation: Report.

• UK police council reports there are officers in every unit trained for crypto enforcement.

• Andreessen Horowitz loses billions of dollars but remains faithful to crypto.

• Binance Oracle network to bridge Web3 and blockchains via smart contracts.

• Norwegian gov’t agency opens metaverse office in collaboration with EY.

• BitPay to introduce USDC and ETH payments on Polygon network.

• The UK has a new name for stablecoins and a new bill to regulate crypto.

Yours sincerely,
Treehouse Research 🌳

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