S&P 500 Futures
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- US stocks closed green as investors anticipate a Republican takeover of the House (more in Macro & TradFi)
- Binance declines Alameda’s OTC deal offer (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- FTX’s Net Flow of assets was largely negative over the last 24 hours (more in On-Chain)
- $FTT perps OI and volume spiked amid ongoing CEX saga; term structure in backwardation ahead of CPI (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC continued on a deeper bearish retracement and ETH remained indecisive over the last 24 hours with both pairs’ bullish structure intact (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
GM! US stocks closed higher as investors look forward to the midterm elections that will be held later today. The general consensus is that the Republicans are poised to at least take back the House of Representatives according to non-partisan forecasters. This will ultimately shift future policy making and spending. Meanwhile, META closed over 6.5% higher as it plans to lay off thousands of employees, easing worries of spiraling costs. Besides the midterm elections, investors will also be on the lookout for the earnings results of companies such as Disney and AMC after market closing hours tomorrow.
US stocks closed green, with the S&P 500 up 0.96%, the Nasdaq up 1.11%, and the DJIA up 1.31%. The 10Y yield increased to 4.218%. Meanwhile, WTI crude increased 0.91% to $92.12 a barrel.
DeFi & CeFi
- Binance CEO declines OTC offer from Alameda for FTT tokens
- SEC exemption has BlockFi bringing back its high-yield product
- Beefy Finance launches on Ethereum
- 3xcalibur AMM launches on Arbitrum
Binance CEO, CZ has declined Alameda’s offer to buy Binance’s FTT tokens in an OTC deal. In a tweet, the CEO confirmed that they will stick to their original plan to slowly sell-off on the market. Elsewhere, Beefy Finance, the yield aggregator, has launched on the Ethereum network offering stable swap LP staking, single sided staking and other LP token staking to earn higher yields. Its current highest yield is its pETH/ETH LP staking at 48%, however with TVL at only $1.8M on Ethereum, this APY is expected to drop quickly. Finally, 3xcalibur, an AMM DEX on Arbitrum has launched its 3xcaliswap product to allow users to swap tokens and deposit liquidity. This project’s model is a modification of the Solidly code base as the team aims to change the dynamics of liquidity, rewards, and swaps.
$BTC Exchange Inflow Volume (7d MA) just reached a 3-month high of $32,348,408.42 Previous 3-month high of $32,325,727.37 was observed on 13 September 2022.
In light of the FTX debacle yesterday, the last 24 hours of FTX Exchange Netflow is extremely negative as users pulled funds aggressively from the exchange. The gray bars represent the total USD amount of net flows. More on FTX on-chain data is available here.
- Funding rate remains positive on BTC and ETH
- 30-day IV rose for both BTC and ETH to 56.64% and 81.09%, respectively
- 30-day 25d put skew tightened for BTC and ETH to -4.4 % and -5.92%, respectively
For futures, total liquidations yesterday amounted to $136M with the majority of it coming from long liquidations at $100M. In addition, open interest and volume for $FTT perps had spiked over the past two days amid the ongoing CEX saga.
On the options front, IV continues to climb on both BTC and ETH. The 30-day VRP for both BTC and ETH continues to widen to 14% and 20%, respectively. Term structure remains in backwardation for both BTC and ETH with a kink on the 11 Nov expiry. For skew, it continues to tighten to the put side, indicating increased hedging demand.
Flows were largely mixed on Monday with large clips of both outright calls and puts being bought on BTC and ETH. On top of that, straddles were also one of the widely traded structures as traders went either long or short volatility.
Despite crypto vols rising, VIX continues to trickle lower, showing signs of vol decoupling between the two asset classes. Furthermore, unlike crypto, the VIX futures term structure is currently in contango.
Crypto Technical Analysis
BTC is at $20,615 and has continued lower by -1.47%. The daily chart illustrates a deeper retracement while price maintains on a bullish structure with new highs formed prior. On the H1, price is in a bearish mode with lower highs and lows created. It is worth noting that a H1 bullish divergence can be seen between price and stochastics. Until a break of structure to the upside is seen, price could still inch lower to its $20,300 level.
ETH is at $1,560 and has hardly budged by moving down by only 0.03%. On the daily, price has printed an indecisive candle signifying that neither buyers or sellers were in control over the last 24 hours. On the H1, price has still yet to break its previous highs signifying there is not enough strength from buyers to take it up in its daily bullish continuation.
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