S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Biden administration plans restrictions on Chinese access to U.S. cloud services, tensions escalate ahead of Yellen's China visit (more in Macro & TradFi)
- Cameron Winklevoss tweets $1.5B ‘final offer’ in debt talks to Genesis; Open Campus delays token unlocks (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- BTC Supply Last Active 1yr+ Net Position Change surges to an all-time high of 13.4M BTC (more in On-Chain)
- Negative Put-Call skew in BTC trade structures; increased buying of call structures (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC and ETH struggle to break resistance; need for volume and substantial catalysts (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
The Biden administration is reportedly planning to impose restrictions on Chinese companies' access to U.S. cloud-computing services, potentially intensifying tensions between the two economic powerhouses. This rule would require U.S. cloud-service providers, including Amazon.com and Microsoft, to obtain permission from the U.S. government before offering cloud-computing services that utilize advanced artificial intelligence chips to Chinese customers. Earlier this week, China announced export restrictions on metals used in advanced chip manufacturing, further escalating the trade war and potentially disrupting global supply chains.
Amid this heightened conflict over access to advanced technology supply chains, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to visit China, aiming to ease tensions and enhance communication between the two nations. Yellen's discussions in Beijing are expected to cover macroeconomic conditions, climate change, and debt issues in the developing world. The Biden administration views this trip as an opportunity to strengthen relations, reduce risks of misunderstandings, and promote stability in the relationship between the world's two largest economies.
The U.S. markets were closed due to Independence Day. Chinese metal producers' shares gained following Beijing's announcement of export curbs on minerals. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures slightly declined ahead of important economic releases, whereas European and Chinese stocks saw marginal increases in a relatively subdued trading session. As of 12 p.m. ET, futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq-100 had retreated 0.1%, while contracts tied to the S&P 500 remained flat.
DeFi & CeFi
- Gemini's Cameron Winklevoss Tweets $1.5B 'final offer' in debt talks over crypto firm Genesis
- Open Campus delays upcoming token unlock
- Moonbirds co-founder announces use cases of reward token $TALONS
- Voyager creditors billed $5.1M for March-May by law firm
- UK Lords pass bill to help seize and freeze crypto used for crime
- $ETH staking network ssv.network enters first phase of mainnet launch
Cameron Winklevoss, the co-founder of Gemini, expressed frustration in an open letter to Digital Currency Group's founder, Barry Silbert, regarding delays in repaying Genesis creditors. He Tweeted a "final offer" of $1.5B in forbearance payments and loans to resolve the debt-restructuring talks concerning bankrupt digital-asset firm Genesis. The proposed plan includes payments and loans denominated in USD, BTC, and ETH, with a deadline of July 6 for agreement. Earlier this year, Genesis had listed more than $3B in its claims to its top 50 creditors where approximately $1.2B is owed to its ‘Earn’ users.
Elsewhere, Open Campus, the Web3 education protocol, announced via Twitter that it will be postponing the token unlocks for OpEx, early contributors, liquidity, and ecosystem, by three months. However, the vesting schedules for other pools will remain unchanged. Furthermore, team tokens will have a cliff period of 24 months and will vest over 36 months, equivalent to a total duration of five years. The token surged over 12% following the announcement.
Lastly, Kevin Rose, co-founder of Moonbirds, shared updates on Twitter regarding the NFT project. He announced the upcoming launch of PROOF's rewards system and token, TALONS, which will provide value to holders and connect creators and collectors. Rose also revealed the upcoming release of the Mythics NFT collection. TALONS will offer various use cases, including access to curated exhibitions, limited edition merchandise, exclusive events, collectible experiments, and opportunities for upcoming projects.
The Adjusted Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit has recently surged to 72.3%, indicating that approximately 10.8M coins are currently held in profitable positions. When analyzing the frequency of trading days with a higher value than 72.3%, 49.2% of the observed trading days have surpassed this threshold. This suggests that the market is currently hovering around its equilibrium point, with a balance between profitable and unprofitable positions.
On the other hand, the Supply Last Active 1yr+ Net Position Change indicator has soared to an all-time high of 13.4M BTC. This notable surge implies that HODLers, the steadfast holders of Bitcoin, are demonstrating a growing commitment to accumulating and retaining their coins for a period exceeding one year.
- BTC and ETH funding rates remain positive
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) is 46.58% and 46.92% for BTC and ETH respectively
- 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH is at 3.57% and 2.79% respectively
- Over the last 24 hours, the futures market witnessed liquidations totaling $54M, with short positions comprising 75% of the overall liquidated positions.
Top 3 CEX USDT perp funding rate arbitrage based on last 24-hour lookback:
Net Annualized APR
Perp (USDT pair)
Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram
1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, DOGE vs USDT perps
2) CEX observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & DYDX
@CexyArbBot allows you to customize CEX, 100+ pairs & lookback periods combo
ATM IV for BTC remains elevated. IV for 7 and 30 DTE remains relatively unchanged from yesterday due to the muted price action and trading for crypto over the 4th July holidays.
The term structure for both BTC and ETH continues to exhibit contango. Compared to the previous day, there have been minimal changes in the term structure. However, the IV for shorter tenors ranging from 0 to 51 DTE has experienced a slight decrease, likely attributed to the limited price action yesterday.
BTC Constant Maturity Skew (P-C) at 25 Delta continues to reflect a negative skew. Both the 7-day and 30-day skew has become more negative over the past trading day, in favor of calls. Options skew has become increasingly negative over the past month.
@Paradigm continues to witness large upside buying as discretionary taker flow with bullish positions. BTC $40K Calls for Dec 40K dominates the open interest on Paradigm, with takers currently holding over 4K contracts in the long position.
Crypto Technical Analysis
On the daily charts, BTC gained 1% yesterday but has not breached the previous week's resistance at $31.45K, continuing to trade within that range. A substantial catalyst and increased volume are needed for a potential breakout. If BTC can puncture this resistance level, we might see it aiming for $34.5K, the next significant resistance. On the contrary, a slip below the support level of $29K may pull it down toward the $25.5K support, further diluting the bullish perspective. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.28%.
Similarly, ETH witnessed no significant movement on the daily, holding up near the key resistance of $2K. RSI has declined to 59.58, pointing to a possible weakening of bullish momentum. Should the downward trajectory persist, potential support levels can be sought at $1.9K and $1.83K.
ETHBTC is currently confronting a substantial obstacle in attempting to break above the 0.065 resistance level, which has demonstrated a strong history of support over the preceding two years. Overcoming this challenge could pave the way to subsequent resistances located at the dynamic 50 and 100-day SMAs, as well as the descending trend line at 0.068. Given these considerations, ETH may encounter headwinds in its bid to outperform BTC in the near term. Presently, the RSI for the ETHBTC pair remains neutral, registering a value of 44.12.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By Treehouse Research
Treehouse Research 🌳