🌳Biden Makes $106B National Security Request To Congress; BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Now Listed On Nasdaq Trade Clearing Firm

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

• Biden proposes $106B security package; Wang Yi's U.S. visit addresses geopolitical tensions (More in Macro & TradFi)
• BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF now listed on Nasdaq Trade Clearing Firm; Grayscale court victory over SEC in spot Bitcoin ETF case made final (More in DeFi & CeFi)
• TRB gains momentum with whale interest; savvy investors impact AAVE and ETH markets (More in On-Chain)
• IVs reached new highs as BTC and ETH goes into a clear backwardation state while C-P skew remains relatively unchanged (More in Crypto Derivatives)
• Bitcoin's dominance rises sharply; ETH breaks above descending wedge (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

President Joe Biden has approached Congress with a substantial national security request amounting to $106B. This proposed package predominantly earmarks $75.7B for both Ukraine and Israel, emphasizing lethal aid, military support, and replenishing weapon stockpiles. In defending the proposal, Biden accentuated the dual benefit of bolstering national security and stimulating domestic job growth through defense manufacturing, notably mentioning states like Arizona and Texas. Additionally, the package outlines funding designated for humanitarian assistance in regions like Ukraine, Gaza, and Israel, while also addressing US border security concerns.

In other news, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is scheduled to visit the U.S. from Oct 26-28 amidst rising Middle East tensions. The visit, which will see meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security advisor Jake Sullivan, precedes a planned summit between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in November. This diplomatic engagement aims to address the competitive tension between the two superpowers on matters like trade, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. Significantly, the U.S. hopes to leverage China's influence in the Middle East, especially concerning Iran, to prevent further regional escalation. Additionally, the U.S. has expressed concerns about China's actions in the South China Sea, especially after a recent incident involving the Philippines. The strengthening of military communication channels between the two countries is a prominent goal for the U.S., irrespective of China's current internal defense leadership issues.

U.S. stocks were muted during the last trading session, with the DJIA and S&P 500 declining by 0.58% and 0.17% respectively, while the NASDAQ Composite increased by 0.27%. These moves follow US treasury yields which climbed over 5%, a 16-year high. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng also slide 0.34% and 0.69% respectively amid rising oil prices and escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Market participants will be looking out for Fed Chair Jerome Powell who is scheduled to speak at the 2023 Moynihan Lecture in Social Science and Public Policy on Thursday, at 04:35 SGT.

DeFi & CeFi

• BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF now listed on Nasdaq Trade Clearing Firm
• Grayscale court victory over SEC in spot Bitcoin ETF case made final
• CipherBlade founder says blockchain sleuthing firm ‘hijacked’
• $144M worth of BTC sent to defunct darknet market coin mixer after 8-year wait
• PetroChina completes first international crude oil trade in digital yuan
• Yearn Finance revamped tokenomics and introduced vote escrow mechanism

The iShares spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposed by BlackRock has been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). The listing of the iShares spot Bitcoin ETF on the DTCC is seen as a significant step in the process of launching a crypto ETF, indicating that BlackRock may have received positive signals regarding approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC has until January 10, 2024, to make a final decision on BlackRock's ETF application. If approved, this could pave the way for other spot crypto ETF filings currently under SEC review.

In other news, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals has closed the case regarding the dispute between the SEC and Grayscale, effectively ordering the SEC to reconsider its rejection of Grayscale's spot Bitcoin ETF application. This finalizes the court's earlier ruling that the SEC's rejection of Grayscale's bid was "arbitrary and capricious." The SEC now has the option to either approve Grayscale's application or reject it on different grounds. Grayscale is eager to move forward with the conversion of its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF and plans to work with the SEC to do so.

On-Chain

Over the past three months, @Santiment has observed a remarkable surge in the TRB price, increasing more than eightfold. Whales are evidently showing interest, with over 51 unique addresses making transactions exceeding $100k during its peak. Furthermore, there's been a notable surge in the creation of new TRB addresses. The robust surge in TRB's valuation and the pronounced whales interest suggest that TRB is rapidly emerging as a potential key player in the cryptocurrency market and also potential for increased liquidity and trading activity.

Recent analysis by @lookonchain has also brought to light a notable transaction by a savvy whale. This investor withdrew 91,200 AAVE, equivalent to $7.63M, from Binance and now holds a total of 175,015 AAVE. Their average purchase price for AAVE stands at $71 each. In addition to this, the same whale has previously traded ETH, securing a commendable profit of $2M this year alone. Decisions by experienced traders, especially those with proven profit track records, suggests an ability to time the market. This wallet could stand as a reference for fellow traders, highlighting potential market trajectories to watch. However, investors should remain cautious when trading and not base investment decisions solely on the actions of a single entity.

Crypto Derivatives

• Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
• Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH continued to rise to 55.09% and 45.54%, respectively.
• 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) rose significantly for BTC and ETH to 6.41% and 4.41%, respectively.
• The futures market witnessed $349.01M worth of liquidations since Friday, with shorts representing 78.92% of the total.

Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities

Following the news of BlackRock's DTCC listing, BTC's implied volatility (IV) continues to surge, reaching new highs. Currently, BTC's 7-day IV stands at 57.47%, while the 30-day IV is at 53.43%, reflecting sustained expectations of volatility driven by recent developments in the BTC space. This heightened IV has also spurred a rally in the altcoin market, with ETH's IV reaching new highs at 48.59% for the 7-day and 43.59% for the 30-day period.

In terms of term structures, both BTC and ETH have shifted into a clear state of backwardation, with near-dated contracts exhibiting significantly higher IVs. Additionally, further-dated options have witnessed a noticeable increase in IVs, ranging from 2% to 8%.

However, the skew dynamics have remained relatively stable over the last 24 hours, with the 30-day and 7-day 25-delta (call-put) skews presently at 7.17% and 6.41%, respectively. This suggests that the overall sentiment ratio among market participants regarding the near-future direction of the market remains consistent, even as more capital flows into these derivatives contracts, resulting in increased IVs.

According to @Laevitas, several prominent short calls were closed, with the proceeds used to purchase call options, as the market turned to an increasingly bullish stance. @Paradigm has also reported that the majority of the flows were concentrated on topside buyings or profit takings. Some of the largest trades include the sale of 1001x 27-Oct-23 32000/34000 BTC Strangle, 11790x 24-Nov-23 1900 / 29-Dec-23 2400 ETH Call Calendar, and 8562x 24-Nov-23 1800 / 29-Dec-23 2300 ETH Call Calendar.

Crypto Technical Analysis

On the daily BTC chart, the price has distinctly positioned itself around the $34.7K mark, having emphatically pierced the upper trendline of its prevailing ascending wedge over the past day. In the event of a downward adjustment, we anticipate a pivotal support threshold near the $31.6K region, translating to a potential pullback of approximately 5.6% from the present valuations. Contrarily, if the bullish trajectory persists, resistance may manifest closer to the $37.9K vicinity, a pump of 10.07%. The RSI currently records a notable 85.79, indicating an overbought condition. Such a high RSI value often predicates heightened vigilance, as markets may be poised for a potential reversion or consolidation in the near term.

In the daily ETH chart, the token has risen to around the $1.8K mark, demonstrably breaking above the descending wedge pattern — a frequently observed precursor to bullish reversals. Nonetheless, if ETH were to retreat, a crucial support line is solidly anchored at approximately $1.6K, which represents a potential contraction of about 13.5% from the present level. On the flip side, any continued bullish momentum could be momentarily halted around the $1.95K resistance threshold. Analyzing from a technical perspective, the RSI registers a value of 72.31. This not only corroborates the prevailing upward impetus but also suggests the asset is treading close to overbought territories.

Finally onto Bitcoin's market dominance chart, Bitcoin consolidates its influence with a marked dominance rate of 53.91%. The data showcases a clear upward trajectory within an ascending channel, signaling Bitcoin's strengthening grip over the broader crypto market. Nearing the upper echelons of this channel, a potential for redirection or minor pullbacks emerges, as dominance often finds resistance at these peaks. If the leading cryptocurrency continues its trend, Bitcoin's dominance could increase further. Concurrently, the RSI stands at a bullish 80.40, edging towards the overbought region.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

By Treehouse Research

Daily Readings

TradFi

• Bill Ackman covers bet against Treasurys, says 'too much risk in the world' to bet against bonds.

• Wall Street hikes forecasts for anti-obesity drug sales to $100 billion and beyond. A look at the numbers

• US Oil Dealmaking at Full Tilt as Chevron Agrees to Buy Hess

• Brazil to slightly increase size of regional development fund

• Bill Ackman covers bet against Treasurys, says 'too much risk in the world' to bet against bonds.

• 'The bond vigilante is coming back,' UBS strategist says.

• Hamas releases 2 more hostages; Gaza health ministry says death toll tops 5,000.

Crypto

• BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF now Listed on Nasdaq Trade Clearing Firm

• Grayscale Court Victory Over SEC in Spot Bitcoin ETF Case Made Final

• CipherBlade Founder Says Blockchain Sleuthing Firm 'Hijacked'

• BTC Valued at $144M Sent to Coin Mixer From Defunct Darknet Market After Eight-Year Wait

• Solana's Largest Defi Protocol Marinade Starts Blocking UK Users

• Sam Altman's Worldcoin Switches Orb Rewards Plan to Boost WLD Supply

• PetroChina Completes First International Crude Oil Trade in Digital Yuan: Report

• Matter Labs Proposes Deployment of $wstETH on zkSync Era

• Yearn Finance Revamped Tokenomics and Introduced Vote Escrow Mechanism

• Lower-middle income countries lead in crypto adoption, but not volume: Chainalysis

• Bitget releases MPC wallet, includes 2/3 private key sharding

Deal Flow

• Web3 Security Firm Blockaid Raises $27M to Help Tackle Industry's 'Never-Ending' Challenges

Yours sincerely,
Treehouse Research 🌳