Arbitrum Token Debut Crashes Multiple Websites As Over 400K Wallet Addresses Claim Their Airdrop, $ARB Price Stabilize Around $1.4 After Reaching A High of $14

24 Mar 2023, Friday

3:36 AM

Arbitrum Token Debut Crashes Multiple Websites As Over 400K Wallet Addresses Claim Their Airdrop, $ARB Price Stabilize Around $1.4 After Reaching A High of $14

BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$28,253.00

$1,812.75

$3,980.75

(+3.19%)

 (+4.12%)

(+0.12%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM Treehouser 🌳

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February 2023 Market Recap

Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • TikTok CEO faces harsh questioning from lawmakers over its potential ties with China (more in Macro & TradFi)
  • $ARB tokens jumped to a high of $14 on its debut before consolidating around $1.4; Do Kwon finally arrested in Montenegro as US seeks his extradition (more in DeFi & CeFi)
  • 350K addresses sold 92% of the claimed $ARB (more in On-Chain)
  • Bears caught by surprise as majority bet on BTC trading below $26K (more in Crypto Derivatives)
  • Both BTC and ETH saw significant gains but rejected at their respective resistance zone (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

During a House hearing, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew faced tough questioning from lawmakers over censorship, propaganda, and the app's ties to China. Lawmakers expressed concern over Beijing's potential influence on the app and called for a ban. The China Commerce Ministry's recent statement opposing any US attempt to force TikTok's sale by its Chinese owners was cited as evidence that the company was beholden to Beijing. Chew sought to reassure lawmakers that TikTok was committed to addressing data security concerns.

The Manhattan grand jury investigating Trump's alleged role in paying hush money to a porn star is unlikely to take any action this week. The grand jury has evidence that could lead to charges of falsifying business records against Trump, but he denies any wrongdoing. The grand jury may not take any action until next week. A request by three Republican chairmen of US House committees for information related to the potential indictment was rejected by Mr. Bragg's office.

Major equity indices remained relatively flat in the last trading session, with the SPX and DJIA down by 0.29% and 0.23%, respectively, while the NASDAQ was up by 1.00%. Treasury yields decreased slightly, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields currently at 0.796% and 1.338%, respectively.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Arbitrum claiming page crashes as $ARB token makes debut, 332M $ARB token remains unclaimed from 240K addresses
  • MEV marketplace Rook justifies its lack of transparency as clients' preference, community proposes dissolving Rook’s $50M treasury
  • Do Kwon arrested in Montenegro and faces fraud charges in US
  • GameFi project Aavegotchi plans to launch its blockchain in collaboration with Polygon
  • TokenInsight integrates token rating widgets into BitForex Exchange
  • Dymension proposes new eIBC protocol for fast and trust-minimized bridging between Optimistic Rollups
  • Conflux Network provides more details about its blockchain-enabled SIM card
  • Decentralized liquidity infrastructure Solv Protocol launches V3

Do Kwon, the co-founder of Terraform Labs, was arrested in Montenegro and charged with fraud by US prosecutors in connection with last year's collapse of the terraUSD stablecoin. Kwon was detained along with Hon Chang Joon while attempting to fly to Dubai using falsified Costa Rican traveling documents with the Korean National Agency later confirming his identity. Kwon faces an arrest warrant in South Korea on securities-law violations and is on Interpol's wanted list. The Department of Justice plans to seek his extradition to the US.

Meanwhile, the highly anticipated $ARB token made its market debut yesterday as the airdrop tokens were released to users. However, the project’s landing page and Arbiscan platform crashed leaving many users waiting for about 1-2 hours. Some users managed to claim their tokens through Arbiscan after the website came back online, but the claiming process encountered unexpected errors such as high gas fees and exceeded RPC limits. The ARB prices on exchanges varied greatly after the airdrop, with a high of $14 on Bybit before dropping to about $1.3-$1.4 as more users claimed their respective airdrop.

On-Chain

The on-chain data shows that 29% of the total $ARB airdrop remained unclaimed, while 826 million $ARB had already been claimed. According to Dune, 92% of the claimed $ARB, equivalent to 760.5 million $ARB, has been sold. Despite the apparent demand for $ARB on decentralized exchanges (DEXes), a closer look at the transaction counts suggests that most retail traders were selling their $ARB, while larger players were buying it. It is unclear whether these bigger players are holding onto $ARB long term or simply taking advantage of the price volatility to make profits through arbitrage between DEXes and centralized exchanges (@dune).

Crypto Derivatives

  • BTC and ETH funding rates rose back to 0.01% and 0.01% respectively
  • 30-day ATM IVs increased to 63.25% and 64.72% for BTC and ETH respectively
  • 30-day 25 delta call skew increased to 5.24% for BTC and 3.14% for ETH

Top 3 CEX USDT perp funding rate arbitrage based on last 24-hour lookback:

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

60.65%

SOL

OKX

DYDX

51.06%

BTC

OKX

DYDX

25.29%

XRP

OKX

BYBIT

Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, DOGE vs USDT perps 

2) CEX observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & DYDX

@CexyArbBot allows you to customize CEX, 100+ pairs & lookback periods combo

The total liquidations for futures in the last 24 hours amounted to $201.76M, with shorts contributing $118.61M.

In the options market, short-term IV fell while IV across the rest of the curve rose. The term structure remained in backwardation, with signs of flattening, and the variance risk premium was negative, with -8.97% for BTC and -5.82% for ETH. The call skew eased to 5.24% and 3.14% for BTC and ETH, respectively, as bullish sentiment returned, and BTC rose by 3.76% and ETH rallied by 4.50% intraday.

In terms of flow, one of the largest volumes came from the BTC 24 Mar contract, which expired today, likely driven by the end of week DOV. BTC rose after US housing data and England's inflation data suggested that inflation might still be running hot. Bears were caught by surprise as most had placed their bets on BTC trading below $26K. Noteworthy trades included 15K contracts of 28 Apr 1.6K/2.1K ETH risk reversal calls and 4.6K contracts of 28 Apr 1.3K put options acting as a tail hedge (@tradeparadigm).

Finally, the VIX increased marginally to 22.26.

Crypto Technical Analysis

On the TA front, BTC has reacted positively to the $ARB airdrop with price surging by 4.4% in merely two hours. However, the bullish momentum did not sustain and was rejected by the $28.8K resistance at the previous local high. RSI, on the other hand, has risen and is currently at 55.9 at the 4H timeframe. Going forward, price is likely to normalize from the hype with the next key support at the previous trendline. If the trendline fails to hold, the next support for BTC could sit at $23.7K.

Meanwhile, ETH has also moved similarly with a 5.1% gain in the same two hours. While RSI has stayed in the normal range at 56.5 for the 4H timeframe, ETH price was rejected at the trendline formed by the local highs. Price is now looking to retest the $1.77K resistance zone for a rebound. If that fails to hold, the next support remains to be at the $1.64K level.

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