Ankr Uses Reserve To Compensate aBNBc Hack Victims; Helio’s $HAY Depegs Amid Ankr Hack; China Reopening Hope Fuels Stocks & Currency Rally

05 Dec 2022, Monday

2:27 AM

BTC	ETH	S&P Futures 500
$17,212.75	$1289.25	$4,069.50
(+1.04%)	(+0.54%)	(+0.02%)
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

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What We Are Covering Today

NFP scare proved to be short-lived as light positioning, hope of Fed slowing down spurred risk-buying (more in Macro & TradFi)
Helio begin repurchasing and burning excess $HAY after its exploit; Solana Foundation announce new incentive program to onboard new validators (more in DeFi & CeFi)
ETH Whales continue accumulating coins despite FTX collapse (more in On-Chain)
Crypto vols recover slightly; Bullish structure buying dominate options flows (more in Crypto Derivatives)
BTC shows potential to move higher, ETH falters over the weekend (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Last Friday saw a wild US session as Nov NFP beat (263k actual vs 200k consensus) tanked stock indices initially over 2%, only to see them making a quick comeback to close only marginally lower. The upbeat sentiment reflected investors’ bet that stocks will close the hurtful year with a wild rally on Fed slowing down, despite that rates are still becoming increasingly restrictive. Dollar’s weakness continued, with USDCNH again among the best performers as China loosened even more COVID control measures (e.g. Shanghai scrapping PCR checks for outdoor public areas) over the weekend - the pair dipped below 7 for the first time since Sept 15, a 0.4% rally for CNH at Asia open.

US stocks recovered post-NFP losses as dip-buying power was strong; NASDAQ closed 0.4% lower vs down as much as 2.5% intraday, while S&P traded 0.27% lower and DOW barely moved. US Treasuries saw a rollercoaster ride as well with the 10-year benchmark bond yield trading in a 16bps intraday range before closing tighter for the 3rd day and trading below 3.5% for the first time in almost 3 months. Both oil benchmarks sold off last Friday but managed to trade higher over 1% both at the Asia open today. Early futures session indicates further Chinese assets momentum.

Economic Calendar For The Week

Monday: China Caixin services PMI; Euro S&P Global PMI, ECB President Lagarde to speak; US factory order, durable goods orders, ISM services index
Tuesday: US trade
Wednesday: EIA crude oil inventory report; Eurozone GDP
Thursday: US initial jobless claims
Friday: China PPI, aggregate financing, money supply; US PPI, wholesale inventories, UOM consumer sentiment

DeFi & CeFi

Helio Protocol starts repurchasing and burning $HAY to restore peg
Ankr dips into reserve to compensate LP for $aBNBc pools
BarnBridge DAO migrates to Arbitrum
Ethereum layer 2 scaling solution TAIKO announces its fully open source
Synthetix atomic swaps v2 is now live
Solana announce new incentive program, Tour de Sun ‘22
Genesis allegedly owes $900 million to Gemini customers
Fraxlend adds gOHM as collateral
Trader Joe announce deployment to Arbitrum
Wombat Exchange introduces natively issued $FRAX on BNB chain

Following its exploit, stablecoin protocol Helio has started repurchasing and burning $HAY as the team looks to recover the stablecoin peg. The process is expected to be completed by tomorrow as $HAY continues to rise to $0.92. In addition, Helio will take on any remaining bad debt through the project's current and future cash flow.

Ankr, whose exploit was linked to Helio’s attack, has tweeted that the protocol will utilize its reserve to compensate LPs for the $aBNBc pools while assuring other staked assets and infrastructure remains unaffected. The team, however, will not compensate LPs affected by speculative trades following the exploit.

Elsewhere, Solana Foundation has announced a new incentive program called Tour De Sun ‘22 (TDS22) in an effort to encourage geographic and hardware diversification of its network. TDS22 will provide performance-based incentives for eligible validators to run testnet nodes in selected high-quality data center locations. More information is available here.

On-Chain

For on-chain, the ETH Number of Addresses Holding more than 32 Coins just reached an ATH of 128,093, which can indicate how whales are still accumulating ETH despite recent market turmoil.

Elsewhere, LINK is being accumulated at a rapid pace by shark and whale addresses. Santiment has noted that wallets holding between 1k to 1M LINK have added a collective 26.8M LINK, which is a 12.8% in their holdings within the past 2 months.

Crypto Derivatives

Funding rate turns negative for BTC perps and remained positive for ETH perps
30-day IV increase for BTC and ETH to 53.0% and 74.7% respectively
30-day 25d put skew tightened for BTC to -9.62% while remaining constant for ETH at -9.11%

For futures, total liquidations came in at $26.86M, with the majority coming from short liquidations at $20.60M.

On the options front, IV has slightly recovered, with medium-term IV following suit, with the 90-day IV rising above 60. Term structure for BTC remains in contango, with a kink at the 16 Dec expiries, which is 2 days post FOMC. Meanwhile, for ETH, term structure flattens post-December but remains in contango. In the last 24 hours, the put-call ratio on both BTC and ETH has been less than one, at 0.503 and 0.240, respectively.

On the flow side, popular traded structures include the long straddle and reverse put calendar for BTC while ETH sees long straddle and bull diagonal spreads (calls). These structures are possibly indicative of bullish trader sentiment in the near term as the year comes to a close.

Lastly, the VIX continued its downtrend and is now trading at 19.15.

Crypto Technical Analysis

Looking at TA, BTC moved sideways during a quiet weekend. On the daily, a bullish divergence has preceded the recent move up suggesting a reversal in play. On the H4, price has attempted to move higher this morning while RSI struggles to pick up momentum. The $18,253 resistance level could be tested should this reversal play out in the near term.

ETH fell on Sunday losing 4%. The asset has since recovered and has reclaimed $1,289. However, RSI has dipped lower on the H4 and it would seem that upside is limited with momentum waning. If ETH near-term price action struggles to close above the 1,289 level on the daily, we could see ETH trending between the $1,195 and $1,289 zone.

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