S&P 500 Futures
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- China first CNY holiday after loosening of COVID lockdown measures leads to blowout flight and movie tickets sales (more in Macro & TradFi)
- Genesis seeks $20M from “Bitcoin Jesus” Roger Ver (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- More BTC miners sell off reserves to capitalize on price rallies (more in On-Chain)
- IV continues to largely fall across the curve, ETH call skew briefly turned negative (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC to test its resistance zone of $23.3K-$24.3K with ETH soon to re-test its resistance zone (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
US data beat estimates but exhibited the slowdown signs wanted by the Fed, triggering further tech rally. US Q422 GDP grew 2.9% QoQ vs consensus 2.6%, slowing down from 3.2% growth in Q322, while initial jobless claims also came lower than expected (actual 186k vs consensus 205k). India’s richest man, Gautam Adani, is facing challenges from US short-seller Hindenburg Research as a recent report accused the company of accounting fraud; the company had since hosted a fixed-income investor meeting yesterday to address the concerns, and labeled the accusations “bogus”.
Three major US indices closed higher; NASDAQ added 1.6% driven by Tesla shares’ 11% pump, while SPX added 0.97% to close at its highest level in almost two months and DOW added 0.66%. US Treasury yields were steady, consolidating around 3.5%. Both oil indices rallied over 1%.
DeFi & CeFi
- Coinbase fined by Dutch Central Bank $3.6M due to non-compliance
- Web3 hardware startup Spatial Labs backed by Jay-Z raises $10M
- CapDot Finance V4 Beta goes public
- Amazon planning new NFT initiative
According to the Dutch Central Bank, Coinbase failed to meet registration requirements before offering services in the Netherlands. Operating unregistered between 2020 to 2022, the Dutch Central Bank has decided to fine Coinbase a total of $3.6M.
According to Blockworks, Amazon announced that it would be pushing toward a new initiative for NFT-based gaming. The project is still in development and is expected to launch in April.
LTC has seen a revival in large whale transactions (over $1M) which has previously preceded two two price rallies seen in 2022.
BTC on-chain PnL index has crossed its 1-year MA which in previous cycles has been a bull market indication.
- BTC and ETH funding rates remain unchanged, APE funding rate dropped below APT
- 30-day ATM IV dropped further for both BTC & ETH to 52.8% and 61.4% respectively
- 30-day 25d call skew lowered for both BTC & ETH at 2.01% and -1.14% respectively
For futures, total liquidations yesterday amounted to $87.2M, of which 58.2% were long liquidations. BTC futures OI is down by -4.2% while ETH futures OI is down -3.8% in the past 24hrs.
On the options front, IV dipped across the curve as term structure flipped to contango from backwardation. Near-dated IVs crashed ahead of DOV selling pressure on the weekend while far-dated IVs remain relatively stable. Call skew has also further eased for BTC and ETH. 7-day RV has also climbed above 7-day IV as variance risk premium fade.
On the flow front, block trade records focus mainly on bullish narrative and system selling volatility (@Blofin_Official). ETH block trades were more conservative as put were more actively traded compared to BTC.
Lastly, the VIX fell consecutively for 5 days to 18.7.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Onto TA, BTC lost its momentum and fell right below the $23.3K-$24.3K resistance zone, with the price still hovering around levels last seen in mid-August 2022. On the daily, the 25MA crossed the 200MA for the first time since 29 April 2022. For bullish momentum to again pickup, price will have to jump in & test the resistance zone of $23.3K-$24.3K, until then, the next support level stands at 21.4K.
As for ETH, it remains in its $1.51K-$1.66K resistance zone. The 50MA crossed the 100MA for the first time since 6 October 2022 but RSI is still in the neutral region. The next support zone is at $1.22K-$1.30K if momentum wanes.
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