S&P Futures 500
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)
GM Treehouser 🌳
Welcome to our Treehouse Daily newsletter (previously known as The Canopy Collective), where Treehouse brings you financial news and insights free daily! We believe you’ll find this helpful.
In case you have missed it, check out our latest insights piece 👇
Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- Chinese stock markets puked as President Xi Jinping cements his power in China; Rishi Sunak to become UK’s next Prime Minister (more in Macro & TradFi)
- Flashlend Market Flaave launches; Cosmos to release Interchain Security in November (more in DeFi & CeFi)
- Hash rate continues soaring as mining difficulty hits ATH (more in On-Chain)
- Iron condor is the dominant structure for BTC as traders take advantage of ongoing low volatility (more in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC and ETH saw renewed strength to end the week, price action shows limited upside (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
GM! China’s 3Q GDP increased by 3.9%, exceeding consensus expectations of 3.3% but falling short of the CCP's own target of 5.5%. Despite this, Chinese stock markets plummeted after President Xi Jinping took the helm for the third term and consolidated his power amid the Politburo, raising fears of increased regulatory scrutiny on the country's technology sector and extended COVID-Zero policies. The Hang Seng Tech Index had its worst day on record, falling more than 8%, with individual tech behemoths such as Tencent and Alibaba falling even more. Elsewhere, Rishi Sunak wins the vote to become UK’s next Prime Minister after Liz Truss resigned. Markets reacted positively to the news. Yields on the 10Y gilts fell 30bps to 3.75% while the FTSE 100 gained 0.74% as investors pinned their hopes on Mr Sunak's plan to cut public spending to shore up the country's troubled finances.
US equities started the week on a strong footing as the S&P 500 rose 1.19%, the NASDAQ up 0.86%, and the DJIA up 1.34%. The Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in a 98% chance for a 75bps hike in November. US10Y Treasury yields rose 7bps to 4.22%. Lastly, WTI Crude Oil inched 0.39% higher to $84.91 per barrel.
DeFi & CeFi
- DeFi TVL down 2.22% over past 24hours
- Aave-based flashlend market Flaave launches
- Cosmos to release interchain security testnet in November
- Pancakeswap announces community-voted proposal to deploy on Aptos by the end of November
- Cosmos's cross-chain smart contract platform Juno to halve inflation from 40% to 20% and token emission reducing from 5.14/block to 3.6/block
- Lending protocol Sentiment is live on Arbitrum
- Quickswap temporarily shut down lending marketplace after a $220,000 flash loan attack
Flaave, a market for flashlending on Aave, launched. Flaave is supported by Aave and Flashstake, allowing users to deposit assets and instantly receive upfront lending yields at a fixed rate. Users can burn fTokens minted by the protocol to withdraw their assets at any time. Currently, Flaave supports lending $ETH, $WETH, $USDC, $CRV and $SNX. It allows users to lend for up to a year.
With 96.62% support, the Cosmos community has approved a proposal to fund 20,000 $ATOM for the launch of the Interchain Security Incentive Testnet. With the testnet ready to launch by the end of November, 50% (10,000 $ATOM) will be reserved for Cosmos Hub validators who complete Interchain Security testnet milestones. The remaining 50% (10,000 $ATOM) will be reserved for bonuses to validators who help identify bugs or performance issues or help develop new tools and monitoring solutions.
For on-chain, the BTC number of addresses holding 0.1+ Coins just reached an ATH of 3,857,870, which indicates that investors are still accumulating BTC.
Numbrs has also noted that the BTC number of addresses depositing to exchanges has also climbed to a new low over the past year.
Hash rate continues to soar for BTC which indicates increased pressure on miners, as mining difficulty continues to refresh ATHs. If BTC prices remain depressed, this could lead to a capitulation from inefficient miners, which could further trigger more selloffs in BTC and other crypto assets.
- Funding rate remains negative for both BTC and ETH perps
- 30-day IV increases for BTC to 57% and decreases slightly for ETH to 67.4%
- 30-day 25d put skew increases in magnitude for BTC to -7.6% and decreases in magnitude for ETH to -6.1%
For futures, total liquidations from Friday to Monday amounted to $241.27M, with 54.3% of that being short liquidations.
On the options front, term structures for BTC and ETH remain in contango. For both BTC and ETH, IV across most expiries remains flat. Current dominant structures include the iron condor for BTC and short risk reversal for ETH.
On the flow side, bullish flows are observed for BTC with call purchases being the top trade according to Paradigm. Flows are more bearish for ETH with put spreads being the top trade.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Looking at TA, BTC closed higher on the weekly last weekend as price found momentum on Friday to turn around and close right at the resistance level of $19,573 on Sunday. This price action suggests that $18,985 continues to be a level of strong support.
ETH had a similar turnaround on Friday, managing to break out of its range and close above $1,336. On the daily chart, price seems to have fallen just short of the previous high at $1,364, thus continuing to be range bound.
Track. Monitor. Discover. Swap. All with Harvest.
The all-in-one DeFi portfolio management platform for the productive investor.
Australia's Ampol expects record annual profit; shares tumble on quarterly miss
U.S. yields climb as hawkish Fed concerns outweigh weaker economic data
Mobileye IPO not capital raise, but market entry -Intel CEO at WSJ Tech Live Conf
Australia's budget to downgrade growth, keep spending in check
China's new home prices fall for second month on weak sentiment
CFTC Chair Behnam Says ‘Number One Accomplishment’ Is Track Record of Enforcement Actions.
Struggling Bitcoin Miners Are Flocking to Maple Finance’s $300M Lending Pool.
MakerDAO Members Support Founder's 'Endgame' Plan to Break Up into MetaDAOs, $2.1B of Transfers.
MakerDAO Community Approves Proposal to Place USDC in Coinbase's Custody Platform.
Near Foundation Urges Winding Down of USN Stablecoin, Sets Aside $40M.
Crypto Custodian Fireblocks Furthers Push Into Payments With Tools Suite.
Global Bitcoin payments market projected to reach $3.7B by 2031: Research.
Treehouse Research 🌳